The Times: ‘Putin the Great’ and his ‘small empire’ can only win a fake victory

The fighting in eastern Ukraine is fiercer than ever, but it is becoming increasingly clear that neither side will be able to win this war any time soon.

Meanwhile, the political cost to Vladimir Putin will increase, which has resulted in a hunt inside the Kremlin for a viable strategy that will present him as the winner, according to an article by Professor Mark Galeotti in the Times of London.

One idea that is gaining ground is to annex a number of former Soviet territories already dependent on Moscow for their existence and then portray Putin as the one who “returns to the country old Russian territories” in the old tsarist tradition, as suggested. and himself.

However, while this land-grabbing approach worked for the emperor who founded Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg, but also for Ivan the Great, who laid the foundations of the Russian state, it will probably prove less successful in the 21st century.

While the Russian attack on Ukraine is progressing slowly, it is also showing signs of exhaustion. As Putin wonders whether he should admit that his “special military operation” is a full-scale war and mobilize reserves – something that would upset and alienate most Russians – his generals do not have the troops available launch another big attack this summer.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians continue to receive supplies of equipment from the West that allow them to continue fighting, but they suffer heavy losses and are already fully mobilized and will probably not be able to achieve a significant victory on the battlefield.

The arrival of autumn will make it difficult for any military operations, as bad weather prevents the use of air power and rains swell the rivers and turn the dry ground into mud.

In September, the chances of any Russian advance will be reduced, just as the real cost of the war will hit Russia: inflation, unemployment, growing awareness of losses, declining hope.

Now that hopes for a quick and easy victory have been dashed, this is happening in Russia. A series of backstage discussions are under way, with a number of government ministers and think tanks proposing various options, hoping to catch Putin’s eye and win his favor.

The case of land annexation

One debate is over whether the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine should be annexed immediately. For some, however, this is not enough.

Some support the annexation of the two “people’s democracies” to Donbass, whose leaders have already declared their desire to formally join Russia. But there are also those who want something more.

They suggest that this is a good time to seize other Russian-backed territories and support a general annexation – which would be in acceptance of local demands, the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

In addition, they are even playing with the idea of ​​either “swallowing” Belarus or relying on the existing treaty between Minsk and Moscow to turn the existing “unifying state of Russia and Belarus” into something much more real.

Then, he argues, all this could be presented to the Russian people as a reversal of the ill-conceived fragmentation of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, as a national triumph, and for Putin to be presented as a new Peter the Great bringing back Russian territory.

But as Galeatti points out, the money to strengthen these areas will have to come from Russia’s federal budget to prove some improvement in the quality of life for locals, not an easy task.

The professor concludes that in this way Putin is exchanging an obvious short-term profit with long-term problems.