The trend today is for Javier Milei to win the second round of elections in Argentina, but great caution is needed. The prediction is from Andrei Roman, CEO of Atlas Intel, the only research institute that predicted Sérgio Massa’s victory in the first round.
“The sum of the votes in the first round gives a clear majority for the right in Argentina, but this does not take into account the movements that may occur until November 19th. This has been a very volatile election cycle,” Roman told CNN .
Roman assesses that it is unlikely that Bullrich’s voters will vote for the Peronist Massa, because she represents the “harder” right of Macrism.
On the other hand, Milei campaigned heavily against Bullrich, with even personal accusations calling her a “murderer”, and her voters may blame him for the defeat and prefer a null vote or not attending.
The CEO of Atlas also considers that many of Milei’s proposals do not have majority support from the population and cites as an example dollarization, his main electoral banner: 57% of Argentines are against it.
Among the reasons that led to Massa’s growth in the final stretch of the first round, Atlas Intel identified: the mobilization of voters who did not vote in the primaries and tend to be less resistant to the government, despite the economic disaster in Argentina, and the fear of loss of energy, subway and bus subsidies granted by Peronism that scared Milei’s poorest voters.
The two candidates in the second round should try to get closer to the center, but there are limits, says the analyst.
Massa has difficulty separating himself from the current government, as he is the Minister of Economy. While one of Milei’s strengths is her “authenticity”, it is difficult to moderate her speech.
Source: CNN Brasil
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