The Ukrainian crisis is already creating upheavals in the Caspian Sea

By Costas Raptis

When Vladimir Putin announced his decision to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” on Monday, the two foreign leaders he alerted by telephone were those of Germany and France, apparently the guarantors of the Minsk Accords.

In his own response, however, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he had also addressed Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan – demonstrating the importance that Turkish support has given to his country. After all, this became even clearer with the request addressed to Turkey (without finding a response), as soon as the Russian attack for closing the Straits on the Russian warships, which have already gathered in large numbers in the Black Sea and star in the operations for control of the Ukrainian coast.

Meanwhile, Putin-Erdogan telephone conversations have highlighted the need for both sides to maintain a channel of communication, although Turkey’s stance on the Russian invasion is unequivocally condemning.

It was preceded, however, by a development which, although it seems secondary in the intensity of the days, is revealing of the way in which the Ukrainian crisis is changing broader balances.

On the same day as the recognition of the “People’s Democracies” was announced, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev arrived in Moscow, whose government remained ostensibly silent on the Ukrainian crisis. In the Kremlin, Aliyev and Putin signed a 43-article Russia-Azerbaijan cooperation agreement with Azerbaijan, but it has not been made public. and that, according to the Russian statement, it is upgrading bilateral relations to the level of the alliance.

Analysts and activists of the Azerbaijani opposition emphasize (eg in the Azeri version of the Voice of America) that Aliyev, guided solely by the preservation of his authoritarian power, adopted the Russian foreign policy. isolated internationally. (But as for the latter, the visit of Pakistani leader Imran Khan to Moscow this week and Brazilian President Zaire Bolsonaro last week shows that “isolation” is a very relevant concept, not to mention China’s political support in Russia and the cautious neutrality of India).

The co-signing of the Russia-Azerbaijan agreement came as a shock to Armenia, whose prime minister (and chairman of this year’s Collective Security Treaty) has also received an invitation from Putin to travel to Moscow. It is recalled that after the Azeri victory (with Turkish help) in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh war, Russian forces undertook to guarantee the security of the region that remained under the control of the Armenian separatists, while Yerevan has launched a process of normalization with the Ankara.

It is recalled that long before the “Democratic Republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk came to the fore, the dissolution of the Soviet Union had bequeathed to the Caucasus three similar formations: Abkhazia, South Ossetia (both separated from Georgia and recognized by Russia and their allies) and Nagorno-Karabakh.

But the one who really has every reason to feel uncomfortable with the Russian-Azerbaijani agreement is of course Tayyip Erdogan, no matter how much Aliyev constantly flatters him (eg on the occasion of his birthday) as his “enlightened leader” “brother nation”. Despite Turkey’s role as the protector of the Turanian nations in the Caucasus and Central Asia, local leaders such as the (otherwise “West-oriented”) Aliyev or formerly Tokayev of Kazakhstan show that it is still difficult to have Moscow as reference point.

Russian-Azerbaijani co-operation is in fact a tripartite one, involving Iran as the main “glue” in energy policy. (GECF) in Qatar, where tripartite co-operation in the field of interconnection and exchange of electricity was discussed, and on Thursday Aliyev told Russian media that his country and Russia were coordinating on supplying Europe with gas in such a way as to lead to a price expansion without prejudice to the interests of either side.

The Caspian Sea therefore seems to be far beyond the reach of Tayyip Erdogan.