- The unemployment rate in Australia is expected to remain unchanged in 4.1% in April.
- The variation of employment is expected to register a modest advance at the beginning of the second quarter.
- The Aud/USD presses the upper end of its last range, pointing to a bullish rupture.
The Australian Statistics Office (ABS) will publish the monthly employment report of April at 01:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs, while it is projected that the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%. Before the announcement, the Australian dollar (AUD) quotes close to the level of 0.6500 against the US dollar (USD), flirting with the annual maximum recorded in early May at 0.6514.
The variation in the use of ABS informs separately about full -time jobs and part -time. According to their definition, full -time jobs involve working 38 hours or more per week and generally include additional benefits, but mainly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part -time employment generally offers higher time rates but lacks consistency and benefits. For this reason, full -time jobs have more weight than part -time when establishing the Aud address.
In March, Australia created 32,200 new jobs, adding 15,000 new full -time and 17,200 part -time.
Unemployment rate in Australia is stable in April
The unemployment rate in Australia has remained around 4% since April 2024, going down to 3.9% in November and reaching a peak of 4.1% in January 2025. Despite being at the upper end of the range, unemployment levels in Australia are becoming a minor concern.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) met on April 1, maintaining the official cash (OCR) rate without changes in 4.10%. According to its definition, the duty of the RBA is to contribute to the stability of the currency, the full employment and the economic prosperity and the well -being of the Australian people.
At their last meeting, RBA officials said that “labor market conditions remain adjusted. Despite a decrease in employment in February, labor underutilization measures are in relatively low rates and business surveys and contact suggest that the availability of labor remains a restriction for a variety of employers. Salary pressures have decreased a little more than expected, but the growth of productivity does not He has rebounded and growth in unit labor costs is still high. “
Apart from that, those responsible for policies said: “Inflation has fallen substantially from the peak in 2022, since the highest interest rates have been working to bring the demand and supply to balance to the balance. Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to decrease according to the most recent forecasts published in the February monetary policy statement. However, the Board needs to be sure that this progress will continue to be sure that this progress will continue That inflation returns to the midpoint of the target band sustainably.
With that in mind, it seems unlikely that the next monthly employment report has a broad impact on the path of the monetary policy of the RBA. It is worth noting that the Central Bank will meet again on May 20.
Meanwhile, global commercial tensions have decreased, strengthening the Aud demand. China and the United States (USA) agreed to drastically reduce reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, with the aim of achieving, meanwhile, a more reasonable commercial agreement. It can be too early to declare victory in this matter, but at least the headlines maintained the mood of the market inclined towards the positive, which should provide additional support to the AU.
When will the Australian Employment Report be published and how could you affect AUD/USD?
The ABS will publish the Employment Report early on Thursday. As mentioned above, Australia is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs in the month, while the unemployment rate is expected in 4.1%. Finally, the participation rate is expected to be maintained at 66.8%.
In general terms, a better employment report of the anticipated will boost the AU, even if the most significant increase comes from part -time jobs. However, the advance could be more sustainable if the increase comes from full -time positions. The opposite scenario is also valid, with weak figures weighing on the Australian currency.
Before the ad, the aud/USD torque is not very below the aforementioned annual maximum. According to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst of FXSTERET, “more profits are expected for the AUD/USD, but they will depend on the feeling of the market, rather than on employment data, particularly if the figures are within the expectations.”
Bednarik adds: “Despite being close to a maximum of several months, the aud/USD torque lacks a clear bullish impulse and, on the contrary, remains within a clear consolidation range between 0.6350 and 0.6510. Technical readings in the daily graph (SMA) of 200, which develops above the SMAs of 20 and 100, which skews the upward risk.
“The profits beyond the upper part of the range within an environment of risk aversion could push the torque towards the level of 0.6600 in the short term. The profits beyond the latter would be more related to a general weakness of the USD than with a strength of the AUD, with short -term resistance in 0.6630 and in the price zone of 0.6670. The support, on the other hand, is found in 0.6420 and 0.6370, with buyers who probably reappear around the latter. “
FAQS EMPLOYMENT
The conditions of the labor market are a key element to evaluate the health of an economy and, therefore, a key factor for the assessment of currencies. A high level of employment, or a low level of unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and, therefore, for economic growth, which drives the value of the local currency. On the other hand, a very adjusted labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to cover vacancies – can also have implications in inflation levels and, therefore, in monetary policy, since a low labor supply and high demand lead to higher wages.
The rhythm to which salaries grow in an economy is key to political leaders. A high salary growth means that households have more money to spend, which usually translates into increases in consumer goods. Unlike other more volatile inflation sources, such as energy prices, salary growth is considered a key component of the underlying and persistent inflation, since it is unlikely that salary increases will fall apart. Central banks around the world pay close attention to salary growth data when deciding their monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to the conditions of the labor market depends on its objectives. Some central banks have explicitly related mandates to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The United States Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the double mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the only mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain inflation under control. Even so, and despite the mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for the authorities given its importance as an indicator of the health of the economy and its direct relationship with inflation.
RBA FAQS
The Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) sets interest rates and manages Australia’s monetary policy. The decisions are made by a advice of governors in 11 meetings per year and in the necessary emergency meetings that are necessary. The main mandate of the RBA is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2%-3%, but also “… contribute to the stability of currency, full employment and economic prosperity and the well-being of the Australian people.” Its main tool to achieve this is to raise or lower interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools are the quantitative relaxation and hardening of monetary policy.
Although traditionally it has always been considered that inflation is a negative factor for currencies, since it reduces the value of money in general, the truth is that in modern times the opposite has happened with the relaxation of cross -border capital controls. Moderately high inflation now tends to take the central banks to raise their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital of world investors who are looking for a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases the demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Australian dollar.
Macroeconomic data calibrates the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in safe and growing economies than in precarious and contraction economies. A greater influx of capital increases aggregate demand and the value of the national currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment and surveys about consumer feeling can influence the AUD. A strong economy can encourage the Bank of the Australian Reserve to raise interest rates, also supporting the Aud.
The quantitative easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations in which to lower interest rates is not enough to restore credit flow in the economy. The QE is the process by which the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) prints Australian dollars (AUD) in order to buy assets – normally State or business bonds – to financial institutions, thus providing them with the liquidity they need so much. The one usually translates into a weaker audience.
The quantitative hardening (QT) is the reverse of the QE. It is carried out after the QE, when economic recovery is underway and inflation begins to increase. While in the QE the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) buys state and business bonds from financial institutions to provide liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more active and stops reinvesting the main one that expires of the bonds it already has. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian dollar.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
