The US dollar continues to rise with little gains

• In the US dollar, markets are beginning to take into account the delay of the Fed's first rate cut.
• The Dollar is starting to recover a bit from the influx of safe haven assets.
• The US Dollar Index remains around 104.50, although it is beginning to move higher.

The US Dollar (USD) is rising modestly on comments from Fed members, as measured by the Dollar Index (DXY), with no clear direction visible for this week after Monday's stalemate. Markets are in a bit of an uproar, with recent polls indicating former US President Donald Trump would win if the election were held today, while stocks are falling ahead of Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday. If we add to this the new speech from the Fed spokespersons, today's day could be hectic.

In terms of economic data, there are no blue-chip indicators scheduled for today, and the focus will, as already mentioned, be on the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Monday, the markets already heard from many members of the Fed, although the message was very unified along the lines that the Fed can still do what it sees fit to tame inflationary pressures. Of course, markets aren't buying the idea that another rate hike is on the horizon, although the “stability for a little while longer” stance is already fully priced in.

Daily summary of market movements: Fed officials say the same

• The US Redbook Index for the week ending May 17 drops from 6.3% to 5.5%.
• Some Fed officials will deliver remarks: Around 23:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will moderate a keynote address at the Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference dinner. He will be joined by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester.
• After a fairly quiet start for US stocks, the red numbers are beginning to become more apparent. US stocks are assuming the negative performance for this Tuesday from Europe and Asia earlier.
• CME's Fedwatch tool suggests a 96.4% probability that there will remain no change in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate in June. The odds have changed for September, with the tool showing a 49.6% chance of rates falling 25 basis points below current levels.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield is trading around 4.40%, in the center of this week's range.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: All Attention Is Rather on Wednesday

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading mixed on Tuesday, with markets holding their breath ahead of Nvidia's results on Wednesday. The fact that a single stock's earnings release is the most important event shows that there are no major catalysts to give any sense of direction to the markets. However, it is clear that, for a few weeks now, the markets have once again been happy to head towards risk appetite, which is accumulating in a general relaxation of the US Dollar.

To the upside, the DXY index is already close to a strong resistance level. The first level to recover is the 55-day SMA at 104.72. Further up, the next levels to consider are 105.12 and 105.52.

On the downside, the 100-day SMA around 104.20 is the last support on the decline. Once that level is broken, an air pocket will form between 104.11 and 103.00. If the US Dollar's decline persists, the March low at 102.35 and the December low at 100.62 are levels to watch.