The US dollar could close this week with minor profits despite a stellar monthly devaluation

• The US dollar lies up with geopolitical concerns in the foreground.
• The dollar can be seen despite the fall in the US yields and the Fed commitment to cut rates.
• The US dollar index tries for the second consecutive day to leave the minimum range of March.

The American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar (USD) compared to six main currencies, extends its recovery and quotes around 104.00 at the time of writing on Friday. The DXY tries to move away from the minimum of 2025 in 103.20 reached on Tuesday, after the Financial Times reported that European countries are developing plans to assume defense responsibilities of the continent from the United States (USA), including a proposal to the Trump administration for a transfer managed in the next five to ten years, which would reconfigure the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO). The European bloc wants to avoid a disorganized exit from the United States in the treaty.

Meanwhile, the pressure is increasing with April 2 as a deadline for the US to impose reciprocal tariffs. Several operators and analysts are trying to understand the impact that tariffs could have on markets, although for now, this remains uncertain. The president of the Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, said at the Press Conference after the last meeting of the Fed on Wednesday that tariffs should have a transitory effect on inflation.

However, markets seem to believe those words, although operators are still skeptical. The last time Powell said the effects were transient, the Fed had to increase its 0.25% to 5.5% policy rate in the post-covid era when inflation seemed to be persistent, not transient. The Federal Reserve took more than a year to confirm that.

Market movements in the daily summary:

• This Friday will be marked as the day of the quadruple witchcraft. The quadruple witchcraft is an event in the financial markets when four different sets of futures and options expire the same day, and investors must decide whether to sell and repurchase their positions or simply sell them.
• At 13:05, the president of the Bank of the Federal Reserve of New York, John Williams, delivered a main speech at the 2nd Macroeconomic Biennial Conference of the Caribbean in Nassau, Bahamas. Williams of the Fed said that neutral rates are the best position at this time to evaluate the impact of tariffs.
• At 15:00 GMT, US President Donald Trump will give a speech from the Oval Office.
• The actions are falling on Friday. In China, Hang Seng and Shanghai Shenzhen fell more than 1.50%. This fed another fall in European and American actions, which are also going down more than 1%. The concerns are increasing since corporate profits in the US seem gloomy, and several central banks – including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England – have expressed uncertainty about the economy due to tariffs, which affects their political decision making.
• According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the probability that interest rates are maintained in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%at the May meeting is 83.1%. For June, the chances that indebted costs are lower are at 70.0%.
• The 10 -year performance of the USA trades around 4.20%, returning to its minimum of five months of 4.10% registered on March 4.

Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index: Skill Perspectives

The US dollar index (DXY) is rising for the third consecutive day and is already positively quoting for this week’s performance. The seismic change that materialized in early March is still present. With the deadline of reciprocal tariffs of the US on April 2, a complete re -return trade could occur to 106.82 or another fall around 101.90 or even 100.62, since markets are having difficulty reading and understanding the possible effects of these tariffs on the global economy.

If the DXY closes above 104.00 this week, a great rising impulse could occur towards the round level of 105.00, with the simple mobile average (SMA) of 200 days converging in that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance. Once that area is broken, a series of key levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the ascending impulse.

Down, the round level of 103.00 could be considered a bearish objective in case the US yields fall even more due to deteriorated US data, with even 101.90 on the table if the markets capitulate even more in their long -term US dollar holdings.

US dollar index: daily graphics