The US dollar goes back slightly before the publication of non -agricultural payrolls

• The US dollar operates slightly down after news of greater relief in fears related to tariffs before the key publication of non -agricultural payrolls.
• China said that it considers starting tariff negotiations with the Trump administration.
• The US dollar index remains limited below 100.00 before the US key data.

The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar (USD) compared to six main currencies, is seeing some rejection and returns to 99.75 at the time of writing on Friday after a false break over the score of 100. The dollar is weakening a little after the holders that China is considering starting tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. As the markets navigate the news of commercial negotiations, the first real official commercial agreement still expects anxiously.

As for the war between Ukraine and Russia, the mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine, a much smaller one in terms of capital potential for the United States and without military guarantees for Ukraine, said Bloomberg, was signed.

In the front of the economic calendar, attention is directed to the publication of non -agricultural payroll (NFP) for April. Expectations remain of a positive result, with the lowest estimate at 50,000 and the highest in 171,000. That means that any result below 50,000 could be sufficient to send the DXY downward, while a number above 171,000 could see a considerable amount of fortress of the US dollar.

Daily summary of market movements: commercial conversations in Asia and NFP

• Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that Japanese US debt holdings are a tool to negotiate with the Trump administration, explicitly raising his leverage as a great creditor of the United States in his negotiations, Reuters reported.
• In a Friday statement, China’s Ministry of Commerce said he had noticed that senior US officials repeatedly expressed his willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” towards China. The Ministry added that “the US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parts, hoping to start conversations with China,” and “China is currently evaluating this,” says Bloomberg.
• At 12:30 GMT, the non -agricultural payroll report will be published:
• • The payroll report is expected to be 130,000 compared to the previous 228,000.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to be stable at 4.2%.
  • The monthly growth of average earnings per hour is expected to be a constant rhythm of 0.3%.
• Actions in Europe have taken a positive tone and are rising more than 1% in the day. American actions seem slower.
• The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the May meeting is 7.6% compared to a 92.4% probability that there are no changes. The June meeting sees a 65.1% probability of a rate cut. If non -agricultural payrolls exceed the estimated number, it is expected that rate cutting expectations will fall apart, while a failure could see increasing rate cutting expectations for June and even May.
• The yields of 10 years of the US operate around 4.21%, erasing the weakening of the previous weeks while the operators seek clues about the proper timing projections of the Federal Reserve.

Technical analysis of the US dollar index: Is it time to break or reject?

The US dollar index (DXY) is at a key technical level this Friday, taken there after a three -day winning streak. The publication of non -agricultural payrolls could be key here for this Friday, with a continuation of the last three days and a firm break above the level of 100. However, even in that favorable scenario, a technical rejection could push the DXY to new minimum of three years.

On the positive side, the first resistance of the DXY is found in 100.22, which supported the DXY in September 2024, with a rupture above the round level of 100.00 as an upward signal. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and again as a basis for the formation of inverted shoulder-hombre (H&S) during the summer of 2024.

On the other hand, the support at 97.73 could be quickly tested before any substantial bearish holder. Below, a relatively thin technical support is located at 96.94 before looking at the lowest levels of this new price range. These would be 95.25 and 94.56, which would mean new minimums not seen since 2022.

US dollar index: daily graphics