- The US dollar quotes slightly down on Friday after recovering the initial losses of the week.
- The US dollar has barely been affected by this week’s geopolitical events.
- The American dollar index has been limited by the obstacle of 104.00 and seems to close the week with a negative tone.
The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar (USD) compared to six main currencies, sees decrease volatility this week. The index, which has been limited below the obstacle of 104.00 this week, has not moved much despite rumors on a possible high fire agreement by Ukraine, the first steps in the vote of the German spending plan and the reprisals of Canada and Europe on US tariffs.
In the front of economic data, final publications are expected later this Friday. The University of Michigan will publish its preliminary reading of the feeling of the consumer for March and the inflation expectation for 5 years.
Daily summary of market movements: calming towards the weekend
- Gold as an active shelter has exceeded the 3,000 $ this Friday in a rally induced by the fear of the recession, where merchants are very concerned about economic growth and the perspective of tariffs, with reciprocal encumbrances that will enter into force in April.
- It is expected to avoid a government closure after it is said that the leader of the Senate minority, Chuck Schumer, supports the financing measure approved by the House of Representatives.
- At 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan will publish its preliminary reading for March:
- The US consumer’s feeling index is expected to decline to 63.1, lowering 64.7.
- The 5 -year consumer inflation expectation has no prognosis and was 3.5% in the final reading of February.
- The actions are making another attempt to get rid of this week’s negative tone. All indices are above 0.50% in Europe and in the US.
- The CME Fedwatch tool projects 97.0% probability that there are no changes in interest rates at the next Fed meeting on March 19. The possibilities of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting are 32.8% and 78.5% at the June meeting.
- The 10 -year performance of the USA trades around 4,329%, far from its minimum of almost five months of 4.10% registered on March 4 and after reaching a maximum of five days on Thursday.
Technical analysis of the US dollar index: does it make sense?
The American dollar index (DXY) shows bassist fatigue after its pronounced downward correction last week. The volatility in its price action has been completely eroded, and even the DXY stabilizes Friday after recovering the initial losses of the week. While the tensions increase before reciprocal tariffs enter into force in April, it seems that the US dollar index could be about to reduce some of the losses of the previous week when evaluating the direction towards next week.
The upward risk is a rejection in 104.00 that could result in more falls. If bulls can avoid that, look for a great boost towards the round level of 105.00, with the simple mobile average (SMA) of 200 days in 105.02. Once that area is broken, a series of key levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will be presented as limits.
Downwards, the round level of 103.00 could be considered a bearish objective in case the US yields fall again, with even 101.90 not being unthinkable if the markets capitulate even more in their long -term US dollar holdings.
US dollar index: daily graphics
Commercial War between the US and China Faqs
In general terms, “Trade War” is a commercial war, an economic conflict between two or more countries due to the extreme protectionism of one of the parties. It implies the creation of commercial barriers, such as tariffs, which are in counterbarreras, increasing import costs and, therefore, the cost of life.
An economic conflict between the United States (USA) and China began in early 2018, when President Donald Trump established commercial barriers against China, claiming unfair commercial practices and theft of intellectual property by the Asian giant. China took retaliation measures, imposing tariffs on multiple American products, such as cars and soybeans. The tensions climbed until the two countries signed the Phase one trade agreement between the US and China in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes in China’s economic and commercial regime and intended to restore stability and confidence between the two nations. Coronavirus pandemia diverted the attention of the conflict. However, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept the tariffs and even added some additional encumbrances.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th US president has unleashed a new wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump promised to impose 60% tariff particularly in investment, and directly feeding the inflation of the consumer price index.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
