The US dollar remains firm after the rebound driven by the CPI

• The US dollar is consolidated above 98.50 after a rally driven by the CPI, with the markets now attentive to the US IPP and industrial production data.
• The president of the USA, Donald Trump, ended a commercial agreement with Indonesia on Tuesday, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports.
• The June CPI data arrived mixed, but the report confirmed the inflationary effect of tariffs and stopped the hopes of feat cuts by the Fed.

The US dollar is consolidating on Wednesday, going back slightly after having reached a maximum of almost three weeks on Tuesday after the publication of US inflation data.

The IPC report reinforced the expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could delay interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the feeling of the market is still cautious since President Trump presses the Fed to cut rates while keeping investors in alert with their aggressive commercial policies.

The American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against a basket of six main currencies, remains little changed at the time of writing, oscillating around the 98.70 mark during European negotiation hours. The index remains close to the maximum of three weeks of 98.60 reached on Tuesday, while market participants adopt a waiting approach to the US Production Price Index (IPP), scheduled for publication at 12:30 GMT.

In a new development on the commercial front, President Donald Trump announced a new bilateral commercial agreement with Indonesia on Tuesday. According to the agreement, Indonesia will face a 19% tariff on the goods exported to the United States, a 32% reduction proposed above. In return, US exports to Indonesia will be exempt from tariffs and non -tariff barriers.

Trump stressed that Indonesia has pledged to buy US energy products for a value of 15,000 million dollars, 4.5 billion in agricultural products and 50 Boeing airplanes. The agreement, described as a “historical agreement”, also grants American farmers, farmers and fishermen full access to Indonesian markets, he said.

At the same time, President Trump is threatening to impose new tariffs of up to 200% on the imports of pharmaceutical and semiconductor products from several countries, with measures that will probably enter into force at the end of the month. “We are going to start with a low tariff and give the pharmaceutical companies for another year to adapt, and then we will establish a very high tariff,” Trump told journalists on Tuesday when he returned from an artificial intelligence summit in Pittsburgh. He also pointed out plans to apply a uniform tariff of more than 10% on goods from more than 100 smaller countries, including many in Africa and the Caribbean.

Market movements: the IPC raises the caution of the Fed, Trump renews the pressure for feats of fees

• The last report of the CPI revealed that general inflation in the US increased in line with expectations in June, increasing an intermennsual 0.3% and 2.7% year -on -year. However, underlying inflation was slightly softer than predicted. The underlying IPC rose 0.2% intermensual, compared to a 0.3% provision and an earlier reading of 0.1%. In annual terms, the underlying IPC climbed up to 2.9%, below the 3.0% expected and above 2.8% in May. The report highlighted persistent but not accelerated inflationary pressures.
• After the June IPC report, President Donald Trump requested immediate cuts in interest rates on his social media platform, Social Truth, stating: “Low consumer prices. Lower the Fed rate, now !!!”. He said that reducing rates could save the US government more than one billion dollars per year in interest payments. Comments add a new political pressure on the Federal Reserve, even when inflation is maintained above the 2% target and markets continue to anticipate only a gradual relief of politics.
• The June CPI report caused a notable change in market expectations on the Federal Reserve policy. The probability of a 25 basic points (BPS) cut in September is now 52.6%, below 70%of a week ago, while the possibilities of a cut in July have fallen to only 2.6%.
• Fed officials adopted a cautious tone on Tuesday, urging patience in the midst of inflationary pressures and uncertainty about tariffs. The president of the Fed de Dallas, Lorie Logan, said The inflationary impact of the new tariffs may not be evident to autumnsince companies tend to gradually transfer the highest costs. The president of the Boston Fed, Susan Collins, agreed with that opinion, warning that Tariffs could push the underlying inflation closer than 3% by the end of the year. Both policy officers emphasized a data -dependent approach, reinforcing the expectations that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates.
• The US commercial panorama remains unstable while President Trump continues to climb the tariff threats. During the last week, warning letters were sent to more than 20 countries, including the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico, threatening tariffs that range between 25% and 50% if trade agreements are not reached before August 1. The EU has responded by preparing a second round of countermeasures, which points to approximately 84,000 million dollars in American goods. However, formal implementation has been temporarily paused with the hope of negotiations. Trump also indicated that a commercial agreement with India could be close, since India was remarkably excluded from the last round of warning letters.
• Traders now focus their attention on a new US economic data lot scheduled for later in the day, including the production price index (IPP), industrial production figures and the beige book of the Fed. The general IP to 2.7% from 3.0%.

Technical Analysis: The US dollar index breaks the descending wedge pattern, proves the 50 -day EMA

The index of Dollar The US (DXY) has changed course from its lowest levels in more than three years, supported by US resilient economic data and an extended tariff negotiation window, which helped reduce geopolitical uncertainty.

The index broke decisively above the resistance zone of 97.80-98.00 after the latest US IPC report, above the upper limit of the descending wedge pattern.

The DXY is being negotiated below its 50 -day EMA, which is located about 98.77, acting as immediate resistance. A clear breakout above this level on a daily closing base would probably trigger a thrust towards the maximum of June 23 in 99.42. The 9-day EMA in 97.97 now serves as an initial dynamic support, while the 98.00-97.80 area offers a solid base in case of setbacks.

In the front of the impulse, the relative force index (RSI) has risen to around 57, maintaining a stable position above the neutral level of 50. A sustained thrust above 60 would reinforce the bullish conviction and indicate an acceleration in the purchase pressure.

Meanwhile, the indicator of convergence/divergence of mobile socks (MACD) remains positive, with the MACD line remaining above the signal line. The histogram bars are expanding, indicating an increase in the bullish impulse.