• The American dollar index slides on the ninth consecutive negotiation day, reaching its lowest level since February 2022.
• The US dollar records its worst performance in the first half since 1973, falling more than 10% in H1 2025.
• Market attention focuses on the Fed Powell speech, the ISM manufacturing PMI and Jolts data for short -term management.

The US dollar (USD) continues to face sales pressure, with the US dollar index (DXY) currently quoting around 96.45, its lowest level since February 2022, while its decrease continues for ninth consecutive day. Persistent concerns about the fiscal stability of the US, tariff tensions and political pressure on the Federal Reserve (FED) keep the US dollar in an unfavorable position.

The DXY has now ended the last six consecutive months in red, falling more than 10% in the first half of 2025, its worst performance in the first half since the currencies began to float in 1973, with the second quarter marking its most pronounced quarterly fall from the fourth quarter of 2022. The US dollar was weakened in front of all the main currencies of the G10 during this period, since the g10 investors sold assets called dollars.

Multiple key factors have promoted the strong fall of the US dollar in the last quarter, but the weakness of the dollar is mainly due to the unpredictable commercial and economic policies of US President Donald Trump. His massive tax and expenses project, known as “a great beautiful law”, has made investors nervous. The project, which includes permanent tax cuts and deep reforms of spending, is feeding concerns about fiscal instability and could add more than 3.3 billion dollars to national debt.

Adding to the pressure, with the deadline of July 9 approaching, Trump’s impulse for broad tariffs is adding uncertainty about global trade and economic policy. With less than a week for the date to arrive, only an tentative agreement with the United Kingdom and a broken down with China has been reached, while conversations with other key commercial partners remain stagnant. The US administration also seems to be retreating its idea of ​​”90 trade agreements in 90 days.” Instead of ensuring comprehensive commercial agreements, the approach now seems to be changing to interim agreements, while maintaining an import tax of 10% that, ultimately, falls on US consumers.

Market movements: Betting for feat cuts, political pressure and tariffs

• The political interference continues to weigh on the US dollar, since President Donald Trump expanded his criticism beyond the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, towards the entire Board of the Federal Reserve. On Monday, Trump asked for an aggressive rate cut at “1% or better”, reviving concerns about the independence of the Central Bank. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, echoed this feeling, saying that Fed officials “seem a bit frozen at the wheel” and suggesting that they are doubting their political response. It also minimized the risks of inflation derived from tariffs, adding: “We have not seen inflation by tariffs”, which can point out pressure for greater flexibility of politics despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
• According to a BHH Marketview report, the yields of the 2 -year Treasury bonds of the US have fallen to a minimum of two months of 3.71% as Fed funds are adjusted to anticipate greater flexibility of politics. The markets now expect the FED to cut the rates at 125 basic points during the next year, carrying the target range to 3.00%–3.25%. In contrast, most other central banks are close to the end of their flexibility cycles. The report emphasizes that the reduction of the performance differentials of the 2 -year bonds between the US and G6 could weigh even more over the US dollar.
• With less than a week for the date to arrive, President Trump has made it clear that he does not plan to extend the fee of tariffs beyond July 9. In an interview with the program Sunday Morning Futures Fox News Channel, Trump said letters will be sent to countries by notifying them about the new tariff rates if agreements are not reached. “We will see how a country treats us – if they are good, if they are not so good – some countries don’t care, we will simply send a high number,” he said.
• The “a great beautiful law”, a broad package of taxes and expenses by President Donald Trump, is now in a critical “vote-rama” session in the US Senate while Republicans press to meet a self-imposed deadline on July 4. The 940 pages bill exceeded a procedural obstacle during the weekend, but now faces many changes. Democrats are pressing to eliminate parts with which they do not agree, especially large cuts to Medicaid and food coupons, and tax cuts that mainly benefit the rich. The high -risk legislative battle is adding fiscal uncertainty and weighing on the feeling of the US dollar.
• The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, is scheduled to speak in the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Tuesday, an event often compared to Jackson Hole. The markets are observing closely in search of clues about the next movement of the Fed in the midst of the growing pressure of President Trump and the Treasury Secretary Besent to cut the rates faster.
• Later on Tuesday, markets will receive fresh updates about the US economy with the publication of the manufacturing PMI of the June ISM and the Jolts employment offers of May. The ISM index is expected to rise slightly to 48.8 from 48.5 in May, but still remain in contraction territory. Meanwhile, it is projected that job offers decrease slightly to 7.3 million, from 7,391 million in April. Any negative surprise could strengthen the case for fed rate cuts and keep the dollar under pressure, while stronger figures could offer a brief relief for the US dollar.

Technical analysis: the US dollar falls below wedge support

The American dollar index (DXY) continues to operate under sustained bearish pressure, recently breaking below the lower limit of a descending wedge pattern that has guided the price action since mid -May. The index now is around 96.45, its lowest level since February 2022, and remains well below the 21 -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, currently at 98.16. This constant rejection of the EMA highlights the strength of the prevailing bearish trend. The rupture of the wedge suggests a possible acceleration in the bearish pressure, without immediate signals of a reversal.

Momentum indicators confirm even more the negative perspective. The Relative Force Index (RSI) has fallen to 27.59, entering over -sale territory, which could point out a possible short -term rebound, although it can also reflect the intensity of the current sale pressure. Meanwhile, the histogram of the convergence/divergence indicator of mobile socks (MACD) remains in negative territory, with the MACD line expanding below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish trend. Unless the DXY can recover and stay above the 98.00–97.80 area, the lower resistance path remains down, with the look now set on the following key support around the round level of 96.00.