The US sees China watching the Ukraine crisis as a ‘model’ for Taiwan

The Biden administration increasingly believes that China values ​​the US response to the Ukraine crisis as a substitute for how the United States will deal with a more aggressive Beijing action against Taiwan, according to three senior officials, according to Bloomberg.

Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken’s decision to visit Australia as planned this week, despite growing Russia-Ukraine tensions, stems from a number of issues. One was that he wanted to emphasize that the government’s efforts to reorient its policies towards Asia would not be discouraged even by the prospect of a war in Europe.

The other came from recognizing that America’s long-term security interests in the Indo-Pacific – where it sought to strengthen new alliances – also depend on how effectively it can respond to crises elsewhere, according to officials.

“Some are watching, others are watching us all to see how we react,” Blinken told a news conference in Melbourne on Friday, without naming China immediately after meeting with his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan.

The “others” are not the only ones responsible for policy-making in China. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ying-wen has ordered her government to monitor the situation in Ukraine and its possible impact on the security of the self-governing island, which claims Beijing but is boosted by billions of dollars in arms sales from the United States.

And after Beijing’s efforts to tighten control in Hong Kong over the past two years, Taiwan has witnessed an increase in Chinese military flights invading the air defense zone. The island is now considered by many in Washington to be Beijing’s next target in the coming years, a claim that President Xi Jinping’s government has rejected.

U.S. officials say they believe the Shi’ite government is studying the cohesion of the NATO alliance as it seeks to repel Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces near the Ukrainian border. Although Putin has said he has no plans to invade Ukraine, the controversy has emerged as the biggest North Atlantic Treaty Organization crisis since the 1990s conflict in the Balkans.

There have been some crackdowns on US-Europe unity, largely over the extent of sanctions to be imposed on Russia if it invades or undertakes anything less than war to destabilize or otherwise undermine Ukraine. But in general, the transatlantic alliance came together to show a united front.

This aspect of the crisis is of particular interest to Beijing, given US efforts to strengthen the US-India, Japan-Australia quadripartite bloc, and the creation of Aukus, a US-UK partnership. and Australia. The US also wants to ensure that Beijing and other adversaries do not see last year’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan as a more relevant model for how the US will react to a future crisis.

In addition to concluding an agreement last year with the United Kingdom to sell state-of-the-art nuclear submarine technology to Australia, the United States on Thursday approved the sale of 36 new F-15 fighter jets to Indonesia, strengthening ties with a key partner in the region. The government also unveiled its Indo-Pacific strategy on Friday, and Biden is set to host Southeast Asian leaders in Washington in the coming weeks.

The growing relationship between Shi and Putin also fuels concerns in the White House, with an official saying the CIA is carefully considering a more than 5,000-word joint statement issued by the two leaders last week after their personal meeting on the sidelines. at the Winter Olympics, for the first time in more than two years.

The document, which hailed an alliance with “no-go zones” between the countries, appeared to represent a call to every nation to create spheres of influence in its territories, an official said.

However, ensuring that US policy does not end in a detour will not be an easy task. Even when Blinken made his trip to the Pacific this week, he made calls from his foreign counterparts and national security officials in Washington about the situation in Ukraine.

“We continue to see very worrying signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving around Ukraine’s borders,” Blinken told a news conference in Fiji on Saturday. The allies and partners “have a remarkable level of unity and common goal” in relation to Ukraine, he said.

“From the president onwards, US officials are well aware that events in the Middle East and elsewhere have often derailed US efforts to focus more on Asia, and they are determined not to let that happen again,” he said.

Blinken met with Pacific Island leaders in Fiji on Saturday. While China was not on the official agenda, Fiji has become an important port for US Navy ships traveling in the Pacific. The issues discussed – including the repression of illegal fishing – are what many island nations see as part of China’s growing reach across the region.