- The Indian rupee remains flat after falling to about 86.20 against the US dollar.
- Tehran threatens to close the Ormuz Strait to interrupt the oil supply chain.
- Investors expect the Fed to maintain stable interest rates on Wednesday.
The Indian rupee (INR) yields early profits after reaching a new minimum of two months about 86.20 against the US dollar (USD) and stabilizes around 86.08 during the European negotiation hours on Monday. The USD/INR’s prospects remain firm since the demand for shelter assets has increased, such as the US dollar (USD), after the conflict between Israel and Iran.
He US dollar index (DXY), which follows the value of the dollar against six main currencies, rises to about 98.30. Last week, the USD index gained ground after reaching a new minimum of three years about 97.60.
There are no signs of efforts by both nations to end the conflict, which has forced investors to move to refuge assets. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that “Tehran will burn” if Iran continues to shoot missiles against Israel, Euronews reported.
Meanwhile, Iran officials have threatened to close the Ormuz Strait, which transports around a fifth of world oil to global markets, a movement that could potentially increase oil prices. “Close the river route is under consideration and Iran will take the better Decision with determination, “said the commander of the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), Sardar Esmail Kowsari, in an interview during the weekend, Arab News reported.
The oil price increase scenario is unfavorable for Indian rupee, since India is one of the main oil -import nations in the world.
Indian Rupia Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Indian rupee (INR) compared to the main coins today. Indian Rupia was the weakest currency against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.08% | -0.22% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.08% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.27% | -0.22% | -0.20% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.27% | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.13% | |
| Aud | 0.18% | -0.01% | -0.10% | 0.22% | 0.12% | -0.04% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | 0.03% | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.06% | |
| INR | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.11% | -0.13% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Indian rupee of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the table will represent the INR (base)/USD (quotation).
What moves the market today: Indian rupee is expected to remain at a disadvantage
- The main trigger for the US dollar will be the announcement of the Federal Reserve (FED) monetary policy on Wednesday, which is expected to have the United States Central Bank to maintain stable interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.
- As it is widely anticipated that the Fed will maintain the interest rates unchanged, the investors will closely monitor the Fed points chart, which shows where those responsible for the policy see interest rates in the short and long term.
- Market expectations will pay special attention to whether officials remain firm in their March projection that the Central Bank will cut interest rates at least once this year in the midst of greater uncertainty about economic perspectives due to the imposition of new economic policies by US President Donald Trump.
- Investors will also focus on the press conference of the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, to obtain comments on the impact of the increase in prices of crude oil on inflation perspectives. Theoretically, the highest prices of oil discourage the Fed to support trimming of interest rates.
- Before the Fed monetary policy, investors will focus on May retail sales data, which will be published on Tuesday. Retail sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, are expected to have decreased a per month after 0.1% growth in April.
- Meanwhile, the decrease in inflationary pressures and foreign capital flows consistent from the Indian market are responsible for the low performance of Indian rupee, in addition to the increase in oil prices.
- Last week, the data showed that the year -on -year IPC increased by 2.82% compared to the previous year, the lowest level seen in more than six years, indicating the need for additional cuts of interest rates by the Indian Reserve Bank (RBI). The inflation report showed that the modest growth in food inflation was the main factor that contributed to the slowest growth of the CPI.
- In the Indian Action Market, foreign institutional investors (FIIS) have been net sellers in the last three negotiation sessions. The FIIS have sold shares worth 4,812.39 million rupees this month until June 13, according to bag data.
Technical analysis: USD/INR reaches a new two months
The USD/INR pair jumps at about 86.23 on Monday, the highest level seen in two months. The torque is strengthened after a strong recovery movement from the 20 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) on June 12 around 85.45.
The 14 -day relative force index (RSI) breaks above 60.00, suggesting that a new bullish impulse has been activated.
Looking down, the 20 -day EMA is a key support level for the torque. On the positive side, the maximum of May 23, 86.44 will be a critical obstacle to the pair.
Economic indicator
Fed interest rates decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Delibera on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates in eight preprogrammed meetings per year. It has two mandates: maintain inflation in 2% and maintain full employment. Its main tool to achieve this is to establish interest rates, both to those that it lends to banks and to those that banks lend each other. If you decide to raise the fees, the US dollar (USD) tends to strengthen since it attracts more foreign capital tickets. If the rates lower, it tends to weaken the USD since capital is drained towards countries that offer greater returns. If the rates remain unchanged, the attention focuses on the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and if it is a hard line (expectancy of higher interest rates in the future) or moderate (expectation of lower rates in the future).
Read more.
Next publication:
MIÉ JUN 18, 2025 18:00
Frequency:
Irregular
Dear:
4.5%
Previous:
4.5%
Fountain:
Federal Reserve
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
