The USD/INR wins while the Indian rupee yields to multiple winds against

• Indian rupee collapses against the US dollar while facing multiple winds against.
• The growth of India Inc. earnings in the moderate Q1, the sale of FIIS and the uncertainty about the commercial agreement between the US and India have weighed over the Indian rupee.
• The US dollar operates calmly while operators reduce Fed Dovish bets.

The Indian rupee (INR) begins the week in a negative note against the US dollar (USD). The USD/INR jumps at about 86.50 when opening, since the Indian rupee does not yield due to multiple winds against, such as: the lack of confirmation of a commercial agreement between the USA (USA) and India, President Donald Trump reiterating the threat of tariffs on the BRICS, a moderate start of the Q1FY26 profit season, and a significant sale by foreign institutional investors (FIIS) so far this month.

On several occasions, US President Trump has declared that Washington is close to ending a commercial agreement with India. Last week, the team led by the Chief Commercial Negotiator of India, Rajesh Agrawal, also left Washington for the next round of commercial negotiations. The delay in confirmation of trade by both economies has generated anxiety among investors.

Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to impose 10% tariffs on BRICS nations imports for supporting what he called “anti -American” policies again on Friday. Trump emphasized the need to “preserve the reserve status of the US dollar” and warned that Washington could not allow anyone to “play with us,” Reuters said.

In the domestic front, the deceleration signs in the tendency of the early results of Q1 have weighed on the Indian bags. Until now, the quarterly results of the main banks have shown slow margins of interest (Nims) slow and moderate benefit growth. The Timecommunications Petroleum conglomerate Reliance has published this quarter star gains, but these were increased by a unique increase.

A moderate income growth published by India Inc. until now seems to have taken foreign portfolio investors (FPIS) to sell significant participations in July. The FIIS bought shares worth 374.4 million rupees on Friday, but have sold shares for a total of 16,955.75 million rupees cumulatively.

What moves the market today: Indian rupee descends against the US dollar

• The Indian rupee operates on the grounds against the US dollar in the opening session on Monday. The USD operates widely stable, after a decrease in the bets of the operators that support interest cuts cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the September monetary policy meeting.
• At the time of writing, the American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six main currencies, operates calmly around 98.50, about a maximum of four weeks of around 99.00.
• According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the probability that the FED reduces interest rates at the September meeting has decreased to 58.5% from almost 70% seen a month ago. The operators reduce the Fed Dovish bets after the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (ICC) for June, which showed that the prices of the products that are largely imported have increased after the imposition of sectoral tariffs by President Donald Trump.
• Market experts have warned that inflationary pressures could accelerate even more than Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” have not yet leaked in the economy, which will take effect as of August 1.
• The president of the Bank of the Federal Reserve of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, has indicated that the Central Bank would need to do more to evaluate the need for some adjustment in the current monetary policy position, since a constant “drip” of new ads of tariffs undermines the idea that tariffs have only a “unique impact” on prices, Reuters reported.
• This week, the Indian rupee and the US dollar will be influenced by the preliminary data of the purchasing managers index (PMI) private compound for July, which will be published on Thursday.

Technical analysis: the USD/INR reaches a maximum of four weeks

The USD/INR extends a three -day winning streak and jumps to about 86.50 when opening on Monday, the highest level seen in four weeks. The short -term trend of the torque is bullish since the 20 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) is inclined to rise around 86.00.

The 14 -day relative force index (RSI) jumps to about 60.00. A new bullish impulse would arise if the RSI breaks above that level.

Looking down, the 50 -day EMA about 85.85 will act as a key support for the torque. On the positive side, the maximum of June 23 about 87.00 will be a critical obstacle to the pair.