The USD/JPY falls while the hopes of fed cuts increase and confusion about tariffs grows

• The USD/JPY quotes around the 143.00 zone, reversing previous profits in Thursday’s session.
• The hopes of fed feature cuts and the US record tariffs on China weigh on the feeling.
• The resistance is observed about 143.05 and 145.10, with support in 142.45 and 142.26.

The USD/JPY pair moved down during Thursday’s European session, going back to the 143.00 zone after two days of modest recovery. The change occurs in the midst of a renewed weakness of the US dollar, since speculation about fed rates cuts resurfaces and commercial holders generate uncertainty in the market. With the feeling of moderately improved risk and the US actions rising – impulsed by optimistic data of durable goods and the commercial optimism of Trump – the Japanese and in Japanese continues to surpass the majority of its peers of the G10, supported by a setback in US yields and a continuous demand for safe refuge.

The markets entered the session on Thursday with a cautiously positive tone, caused by the comments of US President Donald Trump about reaching an agreement with China and softening his position on tariffs. Although the secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Besent, clarified later that no formal offer had been made to China, he acknowledged that the current levels of tariffs were probably unsustainable. In the data front, the orders of the US durable goods for March increased by 10.4%, but the basic reading excluding the transport remained flat by 0.0%, painting a mixed economic picture.

Meanwhile, initial applications for weekly unemployment subsidy increased slightly to 222K, suggesting a slight weakening in the US labor market. Fed governor, Beth Hammack, emphasized patience in monetary policy, stating that the Fed could act in June if the data justifies it. These moderate tones, along with persistent winds against politicians and prosecutors, have dragged the US dollar index (DXY) below 99.50, limiting any rebound in the USD/JPY.

In Japan, attention focuses on the visit of the Minister of Economy, Ryosei Akazawa, to Washington next week for renewed negotiations on tariffs. Previous discussions with the US were allegedly unfavorable for Japan, particularly with regard to car and steel tariffs. Despite this, the Bank of Japan remains one of the few central banks of the G10 that maintains a hard line perspective, providing long -term support for the YEN.

Technical perspective

From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY is showing bassist signals. The relative force index (RSI) is in neutral territory about 39, while the convergence/divergence indicator of mobile socks (MACD) continues to issue a sales signal. Additional neutral readings come from the indicators Williams %R and Bull Bear Power, suggesting a limited conviction about intradication.

The general trend is still bassist, since simple mobile socks of 20, 100 and 200 days have a descending slope. The short -term exponential mobile socks (10 days in 143.05 and 30 days in 145.70) further limit rising attempts.

The immediate resistance is observed in 143.05, with more obstacles in 144.53 and 145.10. At the bottom, the support levels are aligned about 142.45 and 142.26. A decisive rupture below these could open a path to the level of 141.00.

Unless the USD sees a renewed demand or tariff conversations provide a durable catalyst, the lowest resistance path for the USD/JPY can continue inclined down.