The USD/JPY fights while the US dollar weakens waiting for key commercial conversations

• The USD/JPY quotes about 145.00 after not being able to maintain profits above 146.20, pressed by a weaker US dollar and mixed US data.
• The total expenditure of households in Japan in March increased by 2.10% year -on -year, exceeding expectations, while the risks of the US stanflation persist as Fed officials warn about persistent inflation.
• Key technical levels include support in 144.82, 144.79 and 144.49, with resistance in 146.16, 146.31 and 148.30.

The USD/JPY torque has retired around 145.00 after not being able to extend profits above a maximum of almost a month of 146.20 early in the day. The withdrawal reflects a broader weakening of the US dollar, which was reversed sharply as investors reassess the commercial agreement between the US and the United Kingdom and looked towards critical negotiations between the US and China this weekend in Switzerland. The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD compared to six main currencies, fell to 100.30 after reaching a maximum of 100.86, reflecting the growing skepticism of the market on the strength of the recent commercial agreements of the USA.

The US economic perspective remains mixed, with Fed officials highlighting the risk of stagflation. Governor Barr recently pointed out that the highest tariffs could interrupt global supply chains, increasing inflation while potentially slowed economic growth and raises unemployment. In spite of this, the GDPnow model of the Atlanta Fed has maintained a solid growth estimate of the second quarter of 2.30% SAAR, reflecting constant optimism, although cautious. However, the market is still cautious, with recent data that suggests that the US economy could face winds against significant if commercial tensions intensify.

In Japan, recent data surprised upwards, with the total expenditure of households in March increasing 2.10% year -on -year, well above the 0.20% prognosis and abruptly reversing the fall of -0.50% of the previous month. This improvement in consumer spending is a positive signal for the Japanese economy, which could reduce the pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene in the YEN market.

Technical analysis

The USD/JPY is currently quoting about 145.00, with a bearish bias reinforced by several key technical signals. The 50 -day EMA in 146.16 and the 50 -day SMA in 146.31 indicate downward pressure, as well as the 100 -day SMA in 150.46 and the 200 -day SMA in 149.57, which remain firmly in sale territory. The 20 -day SMA in 143.17 provides some support, but the moment indicators are mixed, with the RSI in 52.54 (neutral) and the MACD showing a purchase signal.

Key support levels for the PAR are identified in 144.82, 144.79 and 144.49, while the resistance is 146.16, 146.31 and 148.30. A rupture below level 144.80 could trigger a greater fall, while a recovery would be needed above 146.30 to confirm an upward reversal.

Daily graph