By Leonidas Stergiou
The banks are waiting for the final details of the Recovery Fund procedures, along with the first disbursements expected in early 2022. The strategic planning departments have already calculated the demand for new loans due to the Recovery Fund, but also those that will arise from the overall growth of the Greek economy.
According to their calculations, the funds of the Recovery Fund (12 billion euros in loans and 18 billion in grants) mobilize investments of 37 billion euros that will need financing needs of about 18 billion euros by the end of 2024. In this amount add an additional 5 to 6 billion euros of financing needs that the Recovery Fund will bring as a multiplier. For example, a company may not be funded through the Fund in the first phase, but may have customers who have joined and will have to meet increased demand.
The above mix will create new net financing needs in the economy as a whole (including consumption) totaling 9-10 billion euros. Therefore, the total net credit expansion in the three years 2022-2024 is estimated between 33 and 35 billion euros.
The 35 billion euros are the pie that the Greek banks want to share, with the four systemic ones claiming shares between 25% and 30% each. From this percentage the intensity of the competition becomes evident, as the total market shares of their targets add up to more than 100% of the market.
In absolute terms, the net credit expansion of 33-35 billion euros by 2024 is to be achieved as follows:
Alpha Bank has told analysts that the 800m-euro share capital increase in the summer was aimed at a new net credit expansion of 8 billion euros by 2024.
Eurobank, as stated a few days ago by the Deputy CEO Mr. Costas Vassilios, aims to increase the net credit expansion to companies by 20% in three years, with new loan disbursements of 3.5 billion euros.
The National Bank, according to the presentations to analysts during the announcement of the results of the first half of the year, is oriented towards the net disbursement of approximately 5-5.5 billion euros each year for the period until 2024.
Piraeus Bank, as stated by the CEO Mr. Christos Megalou, for the period 2021-2024 aims at the disbursement of new loans over 20-23 billion euros, while only in 2021 it will close with disbursements over 6 billion euros . For the period 2022-2024, the new loans are estimated at about 20 billion.
The total investments that will be made within the three years, according to Eurobank, are estimated at 32 billion, creating financing needs of 25 billion. The investments per sector are analyzed as follows:
– 4 billion in tourism
– 10 billion in shipping
– 6 billion in energy
– 5 billion in infrastructure, including privatizations
– 3 billion in real estate
-4 billion in industry-processing.
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Source From: Capital
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