- WTI crude oil is negotiated about $ 67.00 while the price is consolidated in a well -defined range.
- EIA cuts US production forecasts by 2025, reinforcing a adjusted supply narrative before the third quarter.
- Threats in the Red Sea and Russian sanctions maintain geopolitical risk premiums in crude oil markets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices remain firm above $ 67.00 on Friday while merchants digest a change in the fundamental landscape.
A combination of US production forecasts, a robust demand for domestic fuel and persistent geopolitical threats are providing support despite the ongoing concerns about commercial tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.
At the time of writing, the WTI is negotiated around $ 67.27, stabilizing after a volatile week driven by holders ranging from new tariff ads to updated drilling projections.
One of the most significant developments of this week occurred on Tuesday, when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reviewed its prognosis for the production of US crude oil for the year.
The agency now expects 13.37 million barrels per day, below the previous estimate of 13.42 million. This marks the second consecutive month of review and reflects the deceleration in the drilling activity observed in the shale basins since the late quarter.
The lower production expectations are interpreted as a sign that the supply can remain adjusted for the winter months, particularly if the demand remains high and global interruptions arise.
Although the inventory data of the early week showed a surprising increase in crude oil inventories, with the EIA informing an increase of 7.07 million barrels on Wednesday, markets quickly changed their approach to the demand for gasoline.
Before the holidays of Independence, the consumption of gasoline in the US jumped at maximum of several months, reinforcing the narrative that the demand for fuel remains resistant despite the high prices in the pumps and persistent inflation.
This seasonal strength has played a key role in limiting the downward movements in the WTI, particularly as the margins of the refineries remain healthy and the use rates remain high.
The announcement of President Donald Trump of a 35% tariff on Canadian oil imports, followed by broader tariffs of 15-20% on other commercial partners, initially generated concerns about repaire measures or supply interruptions.
However, the moderate market response suggests that merchants are largely seeing advertisements as politically motivated, instead of indicative of a real logistic risk in the short term.
Although tariffs could distort the flows later in the year, the current opinion is that physical supply chains, particularly the pipelines between the US and Canada, will continue operational.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently being negotiated about $ 67.27, stabilizing within an adjusted range while the price action is consolidated just above the fibonacci setback of 50.0% of the fall from January to April at 67.08 $.
This level now acts as an immediate support, while additional low levels include the simple mobile average (SMA) of 100 days at $ 64.91, the 50 -day SMA at $ 64.40, and the minimum of June 24 at $ 63.72.
On the positive side, the 200 -day SMA at $ 68.10 is still the main resistance to observe.
A rupture confirmed above this level could expose the fibonacci setback of 61.8% in $ 69.98. Structurally, the WTI is forming an ascending triangle in the short term, characterized by higher minimums since the end of June, which suggests a underlying bullish pressure.
The relative force index (RSI) is currently around 53, indicating a slight bullish inclination.
WTI oil – frequent questions
WTI oil is a type of crude oil that is sold in international markets. WTI are the acronym of West Texas Intermediate, one of the three main types that include the Brent and Dubai’s crude. The WTI is also known as “light” and “sweet” by its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered high quality oil that is easily refined. It is obtained in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Center, considered “the crossing of the world.” It is a reference for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently traded in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the main factors that determine the price of WTI oil. As such, global growth can be a driver of the increase in demand and vice versa in the case of weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can alter the offer and have an impact on prices. OPEC decisions, a group of large oil -producing countries, is another key price factor. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil, since oil is mainly traded in US dollars, so a weaker dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
Weekly reports on oil inventories published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect the fluctuation of supply and demand. If the data show a decrease in inventories, it can indicate an increase in demand, which would raise the price of oil. An increase in inventories may reflect an increase in supply, which makes prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and that of the EIA the next day. Their results are usually similar, with a 1% difference between them 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
The OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 nations oil producing that collectively decide the production quotas of member countries in biannual meetings. Their decisions usually influence WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to reduce fees, it can restrict the supply and raise oil prices. When OPEC increases production, the opposite effect occurs. The OPEC+ is an expanded group that includes another ten non -members of the OPEC, among which Russia stands out.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
