More than thirty years after the founding of Al-Qaeda and more than nine after the death of its leader Osama bin Laden by American special forces in Abbottabad, Pakistan, the jihadist network is still sowing terror. It is even gaining strength by attracting former members of the Islamic State, defeated in Iraq and Syria in 2017. Thus in September, Al-Qaeda calls for an attack Charlie Hebdo after a new publication of the caricatures of Muhammad.
Its most violent attacks, it nevertheless commits in the Sahel where it has around 5,000 combatants. Opposite, the French troops and their allies of the Barkhane force are struggling to stem its progress, despite some successes. Last example: the elimination of about fifty jihadists on October 30 in Mali, near the border with Burkina Faso.
The specialist Mathieu Guidère, author of The Atlas of Islamist Terrorism (Otherwise), deciphers Al-Qaeda’s modus operandi, relations with the Islamic State, the choice of targets.
Mathieu Guidère: Since the discovery of internal Al Qaeda documents in bin Laden’s cache in Pakistan, we know precisely how the organization works. Bin Laden closely ran the structure. He wrote notes, questioned regional officials, suggested alliances. His successor, the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri, continues in the same vein. Even if it does not intervene on the tactical aspect of operations, it defines the strategy and demands accountability from its affiliates, in particular on the financing and the choice of targets. We are faced with a centralized and military organization, contrary to popular belief: that of a label claimed by local groups.
Who is the most powerful Al Qaeda affiliate?
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (Aqmi) is the most active with undoubtedly the subsidiary of Yemen, Al-Qaïda in the Arabian Peninsula (Aqpa). That said, the second doesn’t get as much media exposure due to the war in Yemen blurring things up. But it also commits a lot of attacks.
How many members does Al Qaeda have?
Over 70,000 members. I would say that they are currently twice as numerous as the forces of the Islamic State.
In June, France announced the elimination of Abdelmalek Droukdel, the head of AQIM. What are the consequences ?
It hasn’t changed much. Aqmi has transferred since 2012 almost all of its leaders and its logistics from Algeria to the Sahel. However, Droukdel was of Algerian origin and his opinions no longer necessarily had much weight. The powerful man of Aqmi in the Sahel is called Iyad Ag Ghali. He is a Malian Tuareg who succeeded in bringing together all the jihadist, Tuareg, Arab and Fulani movements in the region within a structure called GSIM. He made GSIM a brand that claims most of the attacks.
ISIS specializes in the distant enemy unlike Al Qaeda, which focuses on the near enemy.
Is Al-Qaeda behind most of the attacks?
In the Sahel, yes. Eighty percent of attacks against Western interests are carried out by Al Qaeda. The rest is signed by the Islamic State. On the other hand, on European soil, it is the Islamic State which acts. Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack by the Kouachi brothers in Charlie Hebdo, but it was a matter of cooperation with the Islamic State since Amedy Coulibaly, the terrorist of the Hyper Cacher, claimed, him, of the Islamic State.
How to explain the stronger involvement of the Islamic State in Europe?
The Islamic State wants to keep its internationalist character and specializes in the distant enemy, unlike Al-Qaeda focused on the near enemy, that is to say the local governments and the Westerners present in the countries Muslims.
The perpetrator of the Nice basilica attack is Tunisian, as was the one who carried out the truck attack on the Promenade des Anglais in July 2016 in Nice. Is there a Tunisian industry?
It’s hard to say. Let us not forget that another recent terrorist was of Chechen origin (the one who beheaded the teacher Samuel Paty in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, Editor’s note). One thing is certain, the Tunisians rather join the Islamic State, because in the region Al-Qaeda is held by the Algerians. Tunisians have even been among the main providers of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
After the fall of the Islamic State, 1,500 Tunisian fighters returned to the country. Two-thirds were imprisoned, but a third remained in the wild. It is these 500 individuals who are the problem. The Tunisian authorities exerted such security pressure that a party fled to Italy, mixing with the migrants from Lampedusa. Since then, as it is difficult for them to integrate into the Italian mafias, they converge on Nice where there is already a large Tunisian community. Once there, the most radical take action.
Al-Qaeda wants to create a kind of European Union of Muslims, while Islamic State wants to build the Islamic United States.
What is the relationship between Al Qaeda and the Islamic State?
They are very bad. During its time in power, the Islamic State sucked up many of the members of Al Qaeda. Since its fall in 2017, many fighters have returned to the fold of Al Qaeda. And that creates a lot of conflict between the two organizations. In particular in northern Mali, where the two camps clash at the cost of several dozen deaths.
Do they share the same agenda?
Absolutely not. There is a great ideological divergence. Both want to create Islamic states. But in the case of Al Qaeda, it is an emir who must take the lead, in other words a military leader. In the case of the Islamic State, it is a caliph, a spiritual leader. Another difference: Al-Qaeda does not intend to abolish borders. He wants to create a kind of European Union of Muslims. In contrast, the Islamic State wants to build the Islamic United States, that is to say a federation. We saw this when it established itself on both Iraqi and Syrian territory in 2014. These two countries became provinces with governors (wâli) at their head.
They are two different models despite a common goal. Hence these frequent fights between them. The Islamic State thus accuses Al-Qaeda of playing into the hands of the disbelievers and the colonizers by accepting the delineation of the borders. While in his eyes it is the lands of Islam.
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