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This year’s growth locked over 3%

Of Tasos Dasopoulos

The growth of 7% recorded yesterday by ELSTAT for the first quarter of the year, guided by investments, exports and private consumption, ensures by 90%, the forecast for growth of 3.1% for the whole of 2022.

Technically, achieving the official forecast requires an average growth rate of 1.3%, for the next three quarters until the end of the year, which is rather easy. This, even if one remembers, that in 2021 and especially the period from April to December, we had the opening of the economy and the lifting of restrictive measures against the coronavirus.

The opening of the economy, brought the manifestation of deferred consumption that led along with the good course of exports and investments, to the recovery of the economy and the formation of an annual growth rate of 8.3%.

This year, apart from high inflation, there is no other obstacle, like the ones we experienced the previous two years due to the pandemic. In addition, 2021, apart from being a year of restart, was also a year of preparation at the level of YPOIK, both for the Recovery and Resilience Fund and for the new NSRF.

From these two sources of Community funds, public investment of 11 billion has been calculated for this year, which is a record amount of many years for the EDP.

This amount could be further increased to 12 or even 13 billion euros, although the part of the private investments financed by the Development Fund, continues to gather the interest that has been shown so far.

It is characteristic that the special electronic platform opened by YPOIK, where the investment proposals must be posted, has so far gathered candidate investments, with a total budget of 3 billion euros.

The tourism

The second “good paper” for 2022 will be tourism. Last year, growth reached 8.3% with tourism having recovered about 60% of the record turnover of 18.5 billion in 2019, ie 12 billion euros. This year, the official forecast wants the recovery of 80-85% of the turnover of 2019.

However, the professionals of the area and the competent ministry of tourism, insist that based on the data so far, but also the reservations that exist, the turnover of 2019 will be fully recovered this year if not exceeded. Therefore, we should expect a turnover higher by at least 6-6.5 billion compared to 2021, from the tourism sector.

Support measures

A third guarantee for growth of over 3% for this year, is the support measures against the accuracy that have already been implemented, or will be implemented from now until the end of the year. From the beginning of the year, measures amounting to 3 billion euros have been implemented through subsidies and direct aids and from now on, until the end of the year, the big intervention in the electricity tariffs has been announced, at a cost of 3.2 billion euros. The total of 6.2 billion euros that will be given, have supported and will continue to support revenues, as happened with the 42 billion euros of coronavirus measures in the two years 2020-2021.

These three factors, together with exports and privatizations that “thawed” after the pandemic, are expected to make a difference this year, reaching growth well above 3%. All this, of course, unless we have something new that will reverse the positive course of the economy.

Source: Capital

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