To the right of the Right, will Meloni ‘swallow’ Salvini?

By Maria Tadeo

Giorgia Meloni is on her way to completing her takeover of the leadership of the Italian Right.

Just four years ago, her party, Brothers of Italy, was a minor political force, often portrayed in the media as part of the political fringe and accused by its opponents of serving as a vehicle for neo-fascism, in a country where the Mussolini years still spark heated debate.

He is now leading the polls ahead of next month’s general election. Meloni’s rise to the upper echelons of Italian political life has upended the balance of power – what was once toxic, today is not – as public discourse and sentiment in the country tilts to the right.

The Battle of “Me”

With eight weeks to go until the polls, there is already talk of a victory – an outcome made more likely after the collapse over the weekend of a short-lived Centre-Left-Centre coalition. A politically convincing victory, however, would again be no guarantee of a stable government. This is due to the inevitable clash of the egos of Meloni, Matteo Salvini, leader of the League and the dominant figure on the right of the political spectrum before her appearance, and the ageless former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Everyone insists that the trio is “compatto,” which roughly translates to tightly knit and on good terms. But Meloni knows she has the upper hand – and she makes the rules. She has publicly told her allies that their joint government program must be financially sound – a wink to budget watchdogs in Brussels and bond markets – thus casting doubt on the pension hike Berlusconi wants or the tax cuts cuts advocated by Salvini.

Similarly, Meloni has warned allies that she will not negotiate for people and positions of power before the election results. This is a warning shot to Salvini that she will be the one to win the electoral prize – and further evidence of a new and dashing confidence. This will surely annoy him, yet he will have no choice but to swallow his bitterness and operate on her terms. How it does so and for how long could well determine the coalition’s success and longevity.

There’s no doubt that Meloni is running a smart campaign. She has given her voters what they want to hear: family values, a fiery critique of the left, a promise of new jobs and tough language against crime and immigration.

In this way, he has sucked the “oxygen” out of Salvini’s message. He has seen his support nearly halved since his heyday in power, when he played the “tough guy” as home secretary. The League has lost its resilience and the shock factor that catapulted Salvini to the fore four years ago has worn off. While Meloni and Salvini are allies, they are competing for the same electoral audience.

The essential difference is that Meloni is this year’s model, while Lega carries the baggage of two terms in government.

Actually, being a member of the cabinet has not worked out well for Salvini. The first time he was a minister, his move to force an election in 2019 failed and he was out of government. More recently, Salvini helped spark the collapse of Mario Draghi’s government at a time when Italians seemed to favor stability. The result; Meloni has a 10-point lead over the League.

Lesson and lesson

Meanwhile, Meloni tries to look like a responsible European, sharpening the contrast with Salvini. He claims he is not flirting with Russia – a blow against the League, which is still marred by controversy over its alleged ties to Moscow and a sympathy for Russia. She expressed her support for NATO.

As Bloomberg News reported, her aides have said Meloni will refrain from picking fights in Brussels, remaining constructive on the reforms needed to free up European funding. Italexit – an Italian withdrawal from the euro – has so far not featured in her campaign.

Time will tell if she means what she says, but so far Meloni seems to have learned from the mistakes of the populists. Their hard-line tactics and incendiary language have always rattled the markets.

While that may be comforting to investors, it may not bode well for her constituents, who often appear the most skeptical on issues like Russia sanctions. Playing the double game of moderate on the outside and incendiary orator on the inside, she will surely test her skills in balance.

But perhaps the biggest test of those abilities will be trying to run a government while keeping Salvini in check.