Today is the Kuleba-Lavrov meeting in Turkey

The diplomats of Russia and Ukraine will have their first face-to-face meeting in Turkey today since the outbreak of war on February 24th.

Sergei Lavrov and Dmitro Kuleba will be hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu in Antalya (south), a tourist resort preferred by many Russian tourists.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has stepped up mediation efforts since the crisis erupted, assured Wednesday that Turkey “can talk to both Ukraine and Russia.” “We are working to prevent this crisis from turning into a tragedy,” he added.

The Turkish president will talk to his American counterpart Joe Biden around 17:00 (Greek time), the White House announced last night.

Ukraine and Russia agreed on Wednesday to declare another 12-hour ceasefire in a series of so-called humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians.

Mr. Kuleba assured yesterday through Facebook that he will do everything he can to make the talks “as effective as possible”, noting, however, that his expectations are “limited”.

“I do not have high hopes, but we will do everything to get the most out of it,” he said, warning that “everything will depend on the instructions Lavrov received before the talks.”

The atmosphere may be very tense. Speaking to CNN, the Ukrainian foreign minister recently described his Russian counterpart as “modern Ribbentrop”, referring to the minister of Hitler’s regime during World War II.

Mr Lavrov will make his first trip to Antalya since the outbreak of the war, as Moscow faces a barrage of Western sanctions and looks increasingly isolated. He is expected to arrive in the Turkish seaside town in the afternoon.

The two ministers will also meet later today with the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the run-up to talks on “progress on the urgent security issue” of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities, Rafael Grossi said on Twitter.

Turkey, a NATO member, is considered an ally of Ukraine, and has also supplied armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). At the same time maintaining relations with Russia, from where it attracts many tourists and from where it supplies grain and energy.

Ahead of a phone call with Joe Biden, Mr Erdogan spoke Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin to call for a ceasefire.

The talks in Antalya were recorded after Russia noted “progress” in its talks with Ukraine on the border with Belarus yesterday, according to the representative of the Russian diplomacy.

Maria Zakharova also reiterated that Moscow does not seek to “overthrow the government” of Ukraine.

Many analysts, however, remain skeptical amid the war, which has already turned more than two million Ukrainians into refugees.

“Any effort can help, but I do not think we should expect any immediate success,” said Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“In order to reach an agreement, the two sides will have to make painful compromises,” warns Berk Essen of the German Institute for International Relations and Security.

Mr Erdogan may boast that he was able to hold the meeting “on neutral ground”, said Soner Kagaptai, a researcher at the Washington Institute, although he acknowledged that he would be “really surprised” if any agreement was reached in Antalya.

He recalled that other leaders had taken initiatives to resolve the crisis, including French President Emanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, without the slightest tangible result at this time.

Since the outbreak of the crisis, Ankara has maintained a very delicate balance between the warring parties and has managed to keep open channels of communication.

“We are not abandoning either Kyiv or Moscow” and we are not “retreating in the interests of Turkey,” Erdogan said in the first days of the war, while denouncing Russia’s “unacceptable” invasion of Ukraine.

However, it has not announced, like Western countries, sanctions on Russia, while keeping air and sea routes open.

“This active neutrality has allowed Turkey to be at the center of the diplomatic game,” said Berk Essen. Whatever the outcome of the meeting, it is a “major diplomatic success” of the Turkish government, whose relations with the West have gone through many turmoil in recent years, according to the German analyst.

SOURCE: AMPE