Russia has not been able to dominate the drone sector in the war in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian (Turkish-made) Bayraktar TB2 can not provide close air support to Kyiv, as it is very vulnerable to Russian air defense, they said in their analysis. Kirsten Fontanrose, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, and Andy Drebby, co-founder of Red Six Solutions. According to journalists, Turkish drones will not give Ukraine the necessary advantage. There are several reasons.
Time is a key factor. In Turkey, the production cycle of Bayraktar TB2 is slow, which means that Ankara can not supply the required quantity to Ukraine in time. Also, even if the Ukrainians operate successfully with Turkish drones, it will take time for them to “get involved in the events on the ground.”
With the onset of spring, the Ukrainian mud gradually disappears and the soil becomes hard. This will allow the Russians to move faster. The Bayraktar TB2 has been used successfully in Libya to deliver precision strikes, but we must not forget an indisputable fact – they failed to provide close air support for ground traffic, as the aircraft is still vulnerable to air defense.
Yes, in Syria and Libya, Turkish drones have severely damaged the Pantsir-S1 mobile air defense system, but Russia does not use this system in Ukraine. The inability of the Bayraktar TB2 to provide the necessary air support is evident in the following fact: 39 downed and lost Bayraktar TB2 drones were reported in Libya, eight in Syria and three in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and those in Russia to be counted.
Another problem with the Bayraktar TB2 is its management. The operating range of these drones is limited. Unlike American drones, Turkish drones are controlled by a ground station instead of satellite communications, as in the case of American drones. What does this mean; The limited range of Turkish drones makes them an easy target for Russian cruise missiles.
Fontainebleau and Drebby say the Bayraktar TB2 will be effective in defending the front line, but ineffective in the territory being looted and occupied by Russia. Analyzes show that if at some point Ukraine is able to retake the territories occupied by the Russians, the Bayraktar TB2 will be useless due to its operational scope. “Ukraine will need drones with a larger range of attack via satellite communications,” said Fontainebleau and Drebby.
Last but not least, Russia is not yet actively using its drones. Putin is currently trying to consolidate his profits in eastern Ukraine. It will also take time, but it will work in Russia’s favor, as long as it evaluates its positions, develops additional drones and introduces air defense systems against the Ukrainian Bayraktar, “as we have seen, managed to successfully oppose the Bayraktar in Libya,” they said. the authors of the study.
“The effectiveness of Bayraktar drones is likely to decline if Russian troops move further into Ukraine and occupy more territory, making UAVs as vulnerable to Russian air defense as the Pantsir,” the analysis said.
Many experts say it is possible to see new drone models on both sides in this war. Passive in this regard remains Israel, the second largest drone maker in the world and perhaps one step ahead of its US counterparts in terms of accuracy and efficiency. But Israel is not involved in this war. And it seems that this will continue and then, with the new UAV models that will appear, the key factor will be one: will Ukraine or Russia have time to put them into combat readiness and use faster?
Baykar Defense is the company owned by Selcuk Bayraktar, son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a company that not only has amassed treasure after Turkey’s withdrawal from the F-35 program and Turkey’s entry into the wars in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, continues to earn by selling drones in war Ethiopia and Ukraine.
Petros Kranias
Read also:
* The chief negotiator of the Ukrainians with the creator of the Turkish drone Bayraktar in Istanbul
* After gains from wars in Libya, Ukraine, Ethiopia, Erdogan’s son-in-law builds supersonic drone
* Turkey’s military exports to Ukraine increased by 5.491% in the first two months of 2022
Source: Capital
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