Total attack against USD – Commerzbank

For all those who thought it would not go so bad and that they had recently negotiated the strongest dollar for it, on Friday brought a hard awakening: the last US employment report showed that employment growth has been drastically decelerated. It was not the figure of July, which with 73K was still within the range of expectations captured by the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, which was shocking, but rather the revisions of the previous two months that left everyone out of place. Approximately 260k less jobs were created in May and June of what had originally been informed. The growth of employment was that weak as during the pandemic. As ‘cherry in the cake’, there was also an increase in the unemployment rate, which almost caused another negative surprise. The rate cut in September, which had been discarded after the Fed meeting, is now back on the table. Consequently, all the earnings of the US dollar against the euro from the Fed meeting evaporated with a single blow, says Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX investigation and Commerzbank commodities.

BLS reports from now on will probably be seen with skepticism

“But the US president Trump would not be who it is if he did not add more firewood: he posted abruptly to the head of the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS), the office responsible for the statistics of the labor market. The narrative of the ‘Taco’ (‘Trump always throws himself back’), and therefore the other argument that supports the USD, collapses with this step. For those who thought that Trump could reconsider his strategy Tariff Once the negative impacts on the American economy were visible, they are now demonstrating that they were wrong.

“However, Trump will probably achieve exactly the opposite. After all, he did not make any secret of why he fired the BLS chief. Any successor of his position must now fear a similar destination if he does not deliver better data. Any statistics that the BLS reports from now Probable that the US dollar reacts asymmetrically to the BLS data in the future, gaining little with good data and facing greater pressure with weak data. “

“But as if all of them were not bad news for the US currency, the governor of the Fed, Adriana Kugler, on Friday announced her early resignation of the Fed Board. Her mandate was scheduled to end in January. Kugler’s departure is very likely that she is very likely that she would Trump will name as Kugler’s successor will serve as an important indicative of how strongly the president intends to influence the Federal Reserve.