How the Tourism in Italy This summer? Never like this year it seems difficult to know: i data widespread in the sector in recent months they seemed often in apparent contradictionamong increasingly expensive holidays, poorer Italians, growing growth, deserted and crazy beaches in the mountains. In July Assobalneari spoke of a contraction of 30% of appearances in the establishments, while Confcommercio included a summer full of tourists, and so, while the secretary of the Democratic Party Elly Schlein spoke of “Empty” beaches and a drop by 15% In the bathing establishments, Premier Giorgia Meloni supported tourism in the peninsula with the official data of the Interior Ministry who certified Arrivals growing and millions of visitors in accommodation facilities. But, in the end how did it really go? Tourism in Italy at what point is it? We talked about it with Carlo Canepa, editorial manager of Political report cardwho wrote a item on the subject.
Apart from the political use that has been made, how reliable the data on tourism of this summer are?
«Compared to what Schlein said, it is true that some trade associations bathing They denounced a drop in presences in the factories this year. But they are still not consolidated: the drop in the beaches There has been between July of this year and July of the year before (-15%), but in June an increase had been declared (+20%). And in any case, less people in factories do not mean less tourists in general: they may have chosen other destinations, such as mountains, lakes or cities of art. As for Meloni, the “web -housing” data seem to confirm a growth in arrivals, even if they are not public and must still be analyzed and consolidated ».
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So how is Italian tourism go?
“It’s early to say it. The numbers spread in August are temporary and will be drawn up by Istat in the coming months. For now we can say that the data used by Meloni and Schlein are partly true, but they do not give a definitive picture ».
Among other things, they spoke of different things
“Exact. Meloni cites arrivals, but in Tourism statistics There are two distinct indicators: arrivals and overnight stays. If I go a week in the same hotel I count as an arrival and 7 overnight stays. If I change three structures in the same week, I become three arrivals and always 7 overnight stays. Therefore the data on arrivals does not equate to the number of tourists, but only gives an order of magnitude. Furthermore, it does not say if they are Italians or foreigners, how much they spend, where they go ».
Today numbers are used as absolute truths. Is this really the case?
“No. The numbers are constructions that require time to be collected and analyzed. In mid -August, for example, Istat still published the data of the first quarter, while Eurostat often spread statistics a year after the “photograph taken” ».
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What do we know with certainty of 2025 tourism?
«Little. We can look at 2024 to make an analysis. Last year there was an increase in the arrival of tourists, especially foreigners, and if there are no great changes, this trend will be confirmed. Another trend found is that the weight of summer tourism is constantly decreasing. In 2024 45% of the overnight stays focused between June and August, against over 50% recorded permanently between 1991 and 2015. But apart from this it is early to make reflections ».
What data can we trust?
«Of those produced by Istat and Eurostat, which are independent bodies. The trade associations, such as that of the bathing, do not think they have a statistically solid survey system. A representative sample and a method for making valid statistics are needed ».
And can you trust the anecdotal evidence?
“They can also have their value. If one says “I have been going to the mountains for 20 years, I have never seen so many people like this year” can tell us something, but even in this case, a voice is not enough. If one wants to make a serious and reasoned speech on tourism it takes time to get the most updated data and it takes many numbers ».
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What is your role as fact-checker?
“Being transparent in saying:” You ask yourself if tourism is going well or bad? The answer today is: we don’t know “. Our task is to explain that reality is often not white or black, but made of nuances ».
What can we say instead of tourism growth data in Italy so praised by Minister Santanché?
“Eurostat shows that tourism has grown in almost all the countries of the Union, in some even more than in Italy. It is therefore more realistic to think of an international dynamic that also involves our country, rather than an exclusive effect of national policies ».
Source: Vanity Fair
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