In the opinion of Enrique Marazuela, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research, “the new normal will be much more technological than the old one.” “We have taken a giant step: we had the technological solutions on the table, but perhaps due to previous inertia we did not adopt them,” he added. This is one of the keys that was noted in the meeting ‘Perspectives 2021: The future, our best investment’, organized by El Mundo and Expansion in collaboration with BBVA.
Marazuela was accompanied by Rafael DomÃnech, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research, and Butia, professor and director of the Department of Economics at IESE and advisor to the Governing Council of the Banco de Espaà ± a. All of them agreed in pointing out that this crisis is very different from the previous one, since it is framed in a pandemic context, with restrictions on mobility.
“What we are seeing is that to the minimum that we have a feeling of having this public health risk-controlled, the recovery has been very fast,” Mas explained. Most of the hardest-hit companies were in good shape and should return to it when they resume business.
In this sense, the aid needed by various sectors should also take the situation into account. “This is not a problem of solvency, but rather that these companies have not been able to continue operating with all normality,” said the professor.
For his part, Domà © nech recalled that when distributing the aid, it must be taken into account that in many cases they must be direct and not entail, for example, a reduction in the debt acquired with ICO credits. “There are companies that need help already, before economic activity returns to normal, that have not requested loans from the ICO,” he warned. “These micro-companies and these self-employed cannot be left out of these grants.”
The colloquium also discussed European recovery funds. But he emphasized the need to use them in viable projects: “It is more important to use them well than to use them quickly”because it is” a very great opportunity to transform our economy. ”
Domà © nech emphasized this idea and recalled that, according to BBVA Research, they could represent between two and three more points of growth in the medium and long term. “The most important thing is that for the first time we have money to carry out reforms,” he recalls. “You can achieve much more in the medium and long term with the reforms than what the investment spending of these aids can give us in itself”. Thus, it considers that they can have “permanent effects on our economy”, both in digitization and sustainability and in the correction of “chronic weaknesses of our economy” such as structural unemployment.
Likewise, the speakers showed confidence in reaching 70% of the vaccinated population by the summer, since they consider that, although it is a complex process, “we cannot extrapolate what has happened in the first months with what will happen after s “, according to Mas. Thus, the arrival of new vaccines will speed up the process, something key, because, as Domà © nech recalls, “postponing this group immunity for three more months can cost between one and two points of GDP”.
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