The Trade Confidence Index (Icom) fell 4.4 points in January compared to December 2022, registering at 82.8 points, reported this Monday (30) the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
The fall took the indicator to the lowest level since March 2021, when it reached 72.5 points, at the height of the second and most lethal wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. In quarterly moving averages, the Icom dropped 5.1 points, the third straight drop.
According to the FGV, although the Icom remained stable in December compared to November, since it began to fall in October, the indicator has accumulated a 19-point drop.
In January, Icom’s negative result “was influenced by the stronger worsening of the assessments on the present, maintaining the pattern that was already observed at the end of 2022, suggesting a reduction in demand and a consequent slowdown in the sector”.
“Expectations for this new year are not encouraging, given that interest rates and inflation are still at a high level, and consumers with repressed purchasing power do not allow a glimpse of a recovery in the short term”, says the note from the FGV.
The drop in the January Icom was verified in five of the six segments of commerce surveyed in the Commerce Survey. The components of Icom, on the other hand, had a divergent behavior.
The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) dropped 8.8 points to 79.9 points, the lowest level since February 2022, when it stood at 78.1 points. The Expectations Index (EI-COM) had a slight increase of 0.4 points, reaching 86.5 points.
“The Trade Confidence Index has registered unfavorable results in recent months”, says the note from the FGV. “In recent months, the declines have been much more influenced by present indicators, whose downward trend has been going on since August 2022.
In this period, the Current Demand Volume indicator accumulated a drop of 20.3 points, while the Current Business Situation registered a loss of 19.4 points in the period.
Despite this expressive sign of deceleration, indicators about the future, which were already at a low level, accumulated losses of a maximum of 3 points in the period. Now the indicators approach at low levels”, continues the text.
The November Commerce Survey collected information from 751 companies between the 2nd and 27th of this month.
Source: CNN Brasil
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