After plummeting 10.8 points from October to November, the Trade Confidence Index (Icom) was stable in December compared to November, remaining at 87.2 points, informed this Thursday, 29, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV ). In quarterly moving averages, the Icom fell 4.9 points, the second straight drop after eight straight months of increases.
According to the FGV, “the Icom stabilized in December at a relatively low level, close to what was observed in February”.
“The stability in the month was due to the worsening in the perception of sales with the present moment, and a slight increase in expectations, but which needs to be relativized by the low level that is still found. The negative macroeconomic scenario seems to reflect on trade confidence. As long as the period of high inflation persists, interest rates at a high level, consumers with low average income and high debt, it is difficult to imagine a return to the upward trajectory of confidence of businessmen in the sector”, says the note released by the FGV.
Despite the stability in the month, there were increases in four of the six segments of commerce surveyed in the Commerce Survey. The components of Icom, on the other hand, had a divergent behavior in December.
The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) dropped 1.0 points, reaching 88.7 points, the lowest level since March this year. “The two indicators that make up the ISA-COM also fell in the month, the current demand volume fell by 1.2 points and the current business situation, by 0.7 points”, says the FGV note.
The Expectations Index (EI-COM) increased by 0.9 points, reaching 86.1 points. According to the FGV, it is the lowest level since last July. The note released by the entity says that this drop was influenced by “the improvement in the indicator that projects the trend of business six months ahead, which rose 2.8 points to 89.8 points. However, on the shorter-term horizon, forecast sales are not optimistic. The indicator retreated by 0.9 points to 82.8 points, the lowest level since March 2021 (68.8 points)”.
The November Commerce Survey collected information from 742 companies between the 1st and 27th of this month.
Source: CNN Brasil
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