The Commerce Confidence Index (Icom) grew 7.4 points from April to May, to 93.3 points, informed this Monday (30) the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). In quarterly moving averages, the indicator rose 2.1 points.
“Trade confidence rose again in May after two months of decline. The improvement occurs both in the assessment of entrepreneurs in relation to the current moment and for better future perspectives”, evaluated Rodolpho Tobler, coordinator of the Trade Survey at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of FGV (Ibre/FGV), in an official note.
In May, there was an improvement in confidence in the six main segments of commerce.
The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) rose 8.2 points to 101.1 points, while the Expectations Index (IE-COM) increased 6.1 points to 85.7 points.
“The ISA exceeds 100 points influenced by the recovery in demand for the third consecutive month. Despite the rise in the EI, it only reflects a reduction in the pessimism of entrepreneurs, since the index remains at a lower level. The release of funds may be helping the favorable scenario of the second quarter, but continuity for the medium term still depends on reductions in uncertainty, improvement in consumer confidence and the evolution of macroeconomic variables”, added Tobler.
Trade confidence remains below the level considered neutral, especially due to the influence of expectations, which have had negative results in recent months, according to FGV.
The Forecast Employment balance (comprised of the proportion of entrepreneurs who plan to increase their number of employed persons minus those who plan to reduce) has been oscillating at a positive level, but still close to a neutral level.
“The negative macroeconomic scenario and the high uncertainty contribute to this caution on the part of entrepreneurs”, justified Tobler. The May Commerce Survey collected information from 760 companies between the 2nd and 26th of the month.
Source: CNN Brasil
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