Brazilian managers changed their view of the Brazilian stock exchange during the first months of 2022 and began to take a more pessimistic view, given the scenario with high interest rates in the United States, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns about the global economy, shows modal survey published this Friday (20).
The company asked 24 managers, including Genoa, Truxt, AZ Quest and Garde, to list the current perception with the Ibovespa from 0 to 5, with 0 being very pessimistic and 5 very optimistic. The survey was conducted between April 27 and May 6.
The result shows that 43% of managers were pessimistic with the Ibovespa, while 39% were neutral and 17% were optimistic. In January’s reading, the most recent, the scenario was quite different, with 45% of the managers consulted saying they were optimistic or very optimistic and only 20% pessimistic about the main index of the Brazilian stock market.
In the report on the new research, Flávia Tavares, a fund analyst at modalmais, highlights the “absence of extreme expectations, both very pessimistic and very optimistic”.
According to her, this image “suggests less conviction on the part of managers regarding the developments” of events such as the war and the monetary tightening in the US, “which may, in some way, be reflected in smaller positions”.
The Ibovespa had a strong start to the year and recorded an accumulated increase of 16% in 2022 in early April, helped, among other factors, by the soaring price of commodities and the positive flow of funds from abroad. However, the movement was reversed as of mid-April and the index even showed a fall in the year, being now around 2.6% in the positive.
Tavares writes that, despite the worsening perception of Brazilian stocks in general by managers, some sectors of the stock market continue to be well regarded. About 71% of managers are optimistic or very optimistic about oil, gas and biofuel stocks, for example. For the financial sector, another positive highlight, the percentage is 54%.
Modalmais, Banco Modal’s platform, which in turn is in the process of being sold to XP, also brings managers’ vision to more local assets. In exchange, 63% are optimistic about the real, 17% neutral and another 17% pessimistic. Others, about 4%, disagree and are very optimistic. In January, they were 35% optimistic and 27% pessimistic.
In terms of interest, a neutral view prevails for short, medium and long-term floating rate bonds (between 53% and 56% of managers, depending on maturity). The scenario changes for fixed-rate, with 52% and 48% optimistic in the medium and long term, respectively, while for short-term maturities the assessment is more dissipated, with 38% pessimistic, 33% neutral and 29% optimistic.
Source: CNN Brasil
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