Donald J. Trump is not going away! “: It is in front of an audience conquered by ultraconservatives dreaming of seeing him remain in politics that the ex-president will speak on Sunday, for the first time since he left the White House. But far from the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference), the high mass of American conservatives that opened Friday in Orlando, Florida, the Republican Party has displayed gaping divisions since the murderous assault on the Capitol.
Among his allies and opponents, the same question resonates: will the 74-year-old billionaire announce on Sunday that he is running again in 2024? Probably not directly, the organizers said, but the tribune should openly flirt with this idea. For his first speech since January 20, the businessman will talk about “the future of the Republican Party and the conservative movement,” his entourage told Agence France-Presse. He should also talk about immigration and “the disastrous policies” of his Democratic successor Joe Biden on this issue.
Still immense popularity but divisions very present
After four years in Trump’s tenure, Republicans lost control of Congress and the White House. And he’s a former president marked with the infamous stain of indictment (« impeachment ») for inciting insurgency in the attack on the Capitol which will take the stage. However, his popularity remains immense in his camp. “There are a lot of people in Washington who just want to erase the last four years” of his mandate, said Senator Ted Cruz in a heated speech Friday. “Well let me tell you something: Donald J. Trump is not going to go away! “. The senator spoke without a mask on stage, in front of an audience where few wore them. To the point that the organizers launched a call to order. “Freedom”, retorted participants, between boos.
Among these convinced pro-Trump, the same message resonated: no question of turning your back on the billionaire. “We will not go back to the years of failure of theestablishment Republican, ”Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said. His allies have been hammering it since his departure from the White House: if the Republicans follow, united, the path of Donald Trump, they will have a chance to take over Congress in 2022. But “if we quarrel, we will lose” caution Senator Lindsey Graham.
The divisions are nevertheless there, and are sometimes exposed spectacularly. Should Donald Trump speak to CPAC? “Yes,” Republican minority leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters on Wednesday, without hesitation. Behind him, Liz Cheney, spokesperson for Republicans anti-Trump since his vote in favor of the impeachment of the billionaire, blurted out: “I don’t think he should play a role in the future of our party, or country. Then everyone went their own way.
Ten Republicans, out of 211 in the House, voted with Democrats on« impeachment » of Donald Trump, accused of having encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol on January 6. The ex-president was finally acquitted during his trial in the Senate in mid-February. Historically, seven Republicans voted in favor of his conviction.
A real electoral force
But even among its biggest critics, we remain aware of its electoral strength. Like Mitt Romney. If the former president is represented in 2024, “I am quite convinced that he will win the nomination of the party”, entrusted the Republican senator to the New York Times DealBook DC Policy Project. Donald Trump’s bête noire, the latter was not invited to CPAC. Neither did Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who declared the billionaire “responsible” for the attack on Congress. As for his former vice-president Mike Pence, he declined the invitation. “There is a disconnection between the Republican Party in Washington and the base, still loyal to Trump,” explains to Agence France-Presse John Feehery, former communicator for senior Republican officials in Congress, now a lobbyist.
Other Republicans could of course run in 2024, such as Senators Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem or ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. “But Trump has the most powerful megaphone and the broadest base of support” today, he said. Unless he leaves politics, Donald Trump will still dominate the party in 2024, predicts John Pitney Jr., professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College. “Republicans know that breaking up with Trump comes at a political cost and most are not prepared to pay the price. “
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