Donald Trump won the majority of electoral delegates and will be the next president of the United States. During the campaign, the Republican promised to abandon the model of diplomacy adopted during the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration and said he intends to introduce a turbocharged version of protectionism characterized by the motto “America First”, which guided his first term, from 2016 and 2020.
This change in stance will have real impacts on the diplomatic relationship between Brazil and the USA, says Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Institute at the American think tank Wilson Center. Part of these reflexes is due to the transactional model of Trumpist diplomacy, where negotiations overlap with long-term relationships built between States.
“In the Brazilian and American diplomatic tradition, this transactional logic is very new. Brazil doesn’t operate that way. Brazil will need to understand what it wants from the USA and then recalibrate the route”, says Santos.
One of the practical results of this vision would be the implementation of a universal import tariff, which would also have impacts on Brazilian products and services, but which would be greater for Chinese products.
“The rise in protectionism is not new. But Trump accelerates this fragmentation. In some sectors, it may even be beneficial, considering the markets that Brazil can occupy through measures that would be imposed on other countries, such as China. But these (negative) effects will end up being felt most in the energy, biofuel, iron and steel agenda. Brazilian companies will be forced to understand how to do business based on this new reality”, says Bruna Santos.
Environmental policy and the Paris agreement
Donald Trump’s campaign promises also indicate that there will be a clear shift in US environmental diplomacy. It was during the Joe Biden administration that the United States began a multitrillion-dollar energy transition package — which expanded investments in green energy and sought to expand the installed production capacity of electric cars in the USA.
The Republican, on the other hand, has already stated that green energy is not one of his priorities. And on the international stage, it could revive one of its main decisions in climate diplomacy: abandoning the Paris Agreement, which sets ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The Brazilian government, on the other hand, is trying to position itself as a diplomatic environmental power.
For Bruna Santos, this will be the main diplomatic divergence between the Lula government and the future Trump administration.
“We saw a great similarity in foreign and domestic policy between Lula and Biden. The issue of energy transition and climate change was a matter of building alliances, within the UN, the COP, the G20… Now, we can expect a reconfiguration of this dialogue”.
Lula x Trump
In addition to divergent public policies, there are also personal differences between the White House and the Palácio do Planalto.
During the campaign, Lula expressed support for Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris. And the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, Eduardo Bolsonaro, followed the counting of votes in the Republican’s delegation, in Florida.
This distance should translate into an increasingly pragmatic interaction between the two countries.
“What I anticipate is a cordial relationship, where Itamaraty will try to ensure that the bilateral relationship is not contaminated by political and ideological divergence. There has already been a signal from Brazilian diplomats traveling to the USA to continue their work. It remains to be seen what political game this will bring to everyday life”, predicts the director of the Brazil Institute.
This content was originally published in Trump’s return will change US diplomacy; What is the impact on Brazil? on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
