Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has effectively opened the door to early elections, according to political analysts, following two recent announcements of a 50% pay rise and a deposit protection plan, Reuters reports.
The two announcements came just five days apart as the Turkish pound plunged uncontrollably, with the Turkish currency slipping to a record low of $ 18.4 per dollar on December 20, causing unprecedented shocks to the economy and households.
Erdogan and high-ranking officials of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have repeatedly ruled out early elections. However, the announcement of the minimum wage and the recovery of the pound to the level of 12 pounds / dollar from the low of 18.4 / dollars. indicate that Erdogan may want to take some initiative soon, as he continues to plunge into opinion polls.
Analysts say the Turkish president’s latest announcements resemble his earlier campaign moves to prove his leadership skills. At the same time, early elections could surprise the opposition coalition, which has not yet agreed on a common candidate.
“The decisions have given the impression that the AKP and Erdogan are excellent managers of the economy,” Mehmet Ali Kulat, chairman of MAK Consulting, told Reuters.
“For Erdogan, a last-minute success story emerges every time before the election,” he said. “We can see the latest developments as a political leader who defeated the dollar and stopped the game of foreign powers.”
However, the effectiveness of the message will depend on the course of the pound and inflation and the impact it will have on Turkish citizens who have seen their purchasing power decline dramatically.
To strengthen the pound, Erdogan announced last week a plan in which the state protects pound deposits from losses due to the devaluation of the domestic currency against hard currencies. Analysts warn, however, that the latest government plan could cause prices to rise further and further increase the country’s debt in the coming months.
Omer Taspinar, a professor at National Defense University and a Brookings Fellow, notes that Erdogan “is already seeking electoral benefits” by increasing the purchasing power of consumers.
“To stop the bleeding, he practically linked the value of bank accounts in local currency to the dollar,” he said. “This aims to create a positive momentum before calling early elections.”
Double-digit inflation and the devaluation of the domestic currency have hit Turkish incomes, pushing dissatisfaction rates for Erdogan to their highest levels since 2015, according to a MetroPoll survey this month.
Other polls suggest Erdogan is losing the election to potential rivals.
Metropoll chairman Ozer Sencar estimates that budget support could help the AKP win undecided voters.
“The idea that Erdogan, the ‘leader’, can solve this problem may spread even further,” he said. “I think the election is approaching. In three months we will see that the value of the money the people will get will again make no sense. If Erdogan waits a year for the election, he may lose.”
An AKP official, however, said “elections are not on our agenda. Elections are scheduled for 2023.” The same official noted that the climate has improved in the party and in the country in the last week. “There will be new measures to alleviate other sections of society,” he said.
Another AKP official also said that the long-term benefits of the latest measures would further strengthen the psychology. “The atmosphere of panic in the country has dissipated. Now we will continue to make the right decisions calmly,” he said.
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Source From: Capital
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