Turkey: The ‘balance exercise’ between Russia and NATO falls into a vacuum

By Jill Goldenziel

Turkey’s attempt to balance Russia and NATO falls on deaf ears.

Turkey has very good relations with its maritime neighbors, Russia and Ukraine, which are its largest suppliers of grain. Russia is Turkey’s main energy supplier, and has acquired a Russian-made air defense system, angering NATO members. Meanwhile, Turkey has upset Moscow by supplying Ukraine with unmanned aerial vehicles. He has called for an end to Russian hostilities, but abstained from voting on February 25 to suspend Russia’s participation in most of the Council of Europe.

On Monday, under pressure from Ukraine, Turkey implemented an international treaty allowing Russia to prevent Russian warships from entering the Black Sea. While the US has welcomed the move, Turkey’s rationale behind it could spark tensions in the long run. Turkey needs to clarify and change its rationale for blocking Russian warships to avoid escalation of the conflict.

On Monday, Turkey invoked the 1936 Montreux Treaty, which was designed to maintain peace in the Black Sea. The Bosphorus Straits and the Dardanelles are Turkish inland waters that connect the Black Sea with the Aegean and the Mediterranean Sea. During the 19th and 20th centuries, there were repeated conflicts as world powers – especially Turkey, Russia and their ancestral countries and empires – sought to restrict the passage of warships through these strategic points.

The 1936 Montreux Treaty was designed to balance Turkey’s inland water rights with the rights and needs of the international community to use the straits and maintain peace in the Black Sea. The Treaty of Montreux applies to the Straits and not the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), because it is a specialized law that concerns a specific area and was in force before the adoption of UNCLOS.

The Montreux Treaty gives Turkey the right to restrict access to straits for warships of non-Black Sea states. In peacetime, Turkey may limit the number of ships that can enter the Straits, require those ships to report on their situation, and restrict non-Black Sea warships from remaining. at sea for more than 21 days. In time of war, Turkey must restrict access to the Black Sea for the warring forces, allowing them to enter the Sea only to return to their base ports. Turkey may also restrict access when it “considers itself to be in imminent danger of war”. Turkey has strictly implemented the Treaty in peacetime. He has invoked it only once in times of war, in World War II, when it closed the straits.

By the time Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 16 Russian warships and a submarine had already entered the straits during pre-war military exercises. The Black Sea was the site of the first battles on Fidonisi and the Russian invasions of Odessa. On February 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Turkey to close the straits on Russian warships. Zelenski then thanked Turkey for its decision to close the straits on Russian warships on Twitter, reportedly forcing Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to make a decision. Within a day, Turkey called the conflict a “war,” effectively forcing itself to rule out war-torn areas. On Monday, however, Turkey announced that it would close the straits to all warships, not just those belonging to the two sides involved in the war. Turkey has made it clear that warships will only be allowed to enter if they return to their country’s port.

This closure will not prevent the fighting from stopping in the short term. Russian warships currently in the Black Sea will be able to be maintained for two to three months without returning to their ports, especially with the possibility of replenishment in the Crimea. However, if the war continues, the warships that will leave the Black Sea will not be able to return. Four Russian warships have reportedly canceled their plans to enter the Black Sea as a result of Turkey’s announcement.

Turkey’s attempt to balance could easily fail. Turkey could easily have excluded only warships or Russian ships. He probably chose to block all warships to avoid appearing to take a stand against Russia. Turkey has not put forward any reason to feel that it is in “immediate” danger of war that would allow it to prevent all warships from entering the straits. A NATO member’s announcement that he “is in imminent danger of war” could have consequences for the Alliance’s involvement in the conflict, especially if Russia chooses to push for it or use it to escalate. If Turkey is not in imminent danger of war, a neutral state could seemingly sue it for blocking navigation rights in the straits. No neutral state will relinquish its navigation rights to two of the world’s most strategic straits, especially if the war is prolonged.

In addition, the blockade of the straits by Turkey is as useful as its enforcement. So far, no Russian or Ukrainian ships have requested to enter the Black Sea during the conflict. If a Russian ship tries to enter, Turkey is now committed to blocking it. This could escalate tensions with Russia and, in turn, between Russia and NATO. Meanwhile, if non-warring nations want to deploy warships in the Black Sea, including NATO countries, Turkey’s position is that it will block them as well. If it did, it could spark tensions between NATO and Turkey, if it did not, it could escalate the conflict by showing that Turkey is taking a stand against Russia. Allowing ships to pass through non-war-torn countries would show that Turkey is incapable or unwilling to police the straits, which would damage both Turkey’s reputation and possibly the future of a treaty entrusting Turkey with maintaining peace in the Black Sea. Sea.

Turkey should clarify its legal rationale for blocking access to the straits and prevent only warships from entering war-torn countries. Turkey’s NATO allies should pressure it to do so to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

NATO should also avoid a long-term precedent that would allow Turkey to claim wider control of the straits than is allowed by the Treaty. The fate of the Treaty itself may be in jeopardy. Erdogan has already raised concerns about circumventing the treaty in order to implement an ambitious canal plan in the straits. NATO must act to maintain the instrument that has maintained peace in the Black Sea for almost a century, before becoming a “victim of war”.