‘Twin’ of good news for the economy

Of Tasos Dasopoulos

Despite the concern spread by the Omicron mutation, the Greek economy continues to measure positive developments near the end of 2021, successfully completing another post-memorandum assessment and having to wait for a positive development for the GDP of the third quarter.

The Minister of Finance, Mr. Christos Staikouras in yesterday’s statements confirmed that the budget course remains positive for the fourth quarter as well, as the revenues for November are estimated to have exceeded the budget targets, by about 480 million euros.

Today, ELSTAT is expected to announce the data on the GDP evolution of the third quarter, ie the period July-September, when we had the substantial recovery of tourism.

The estimates of the financial staff, based on the data available so far, are that the turnover of Tourism, for the quarter of July-September, has exceeded 55% of the turnover of 2019, reaching 10.5 billion euros, compared to 25% of turnover of 2019 (approximately 4.5 billion euros), which had been achieved in the same period of 2020.

In addition, the turnover of the vast majority of companies (excluding the clothing and footwear sectors) for the third quarter of the year, had reached the levels of 2019 and was increased by 26.9% compared to the turnover of 2020, an increase corresponding to 19.3 billion euros.

All this while private consumption increased by 4%, while construction activity, exports and investments ran at double-digit rates. Given these data, GDP growth for the third quarter may be lower than the 16.2% increase we had in the second quarter of 2021, but it is expected to be significant and if nothing else, will ensure that it is feasible. Achieving the 6.9% growth rate set as a formal budget forecast is feasible, if not conservative.

The Eurogroup

This afternoon, the Eurogroup that will meet in Brussels and will have as its first topic the report of the 12th assessment of Greece in a regime of enhanced supervision, which is also connected with the approval of the implementation of the medium-term debt measures.

In other words, the Eurozone finance ministers, taking into account the progress of the reforms that the European Commission will note in its report, will approve the relevant proposal of the Commission for the disbursement to Greece of the sixth tranche of the bond profits (ANFA’s and SNP’s ) held by European banks.

The installment amounts to 767 million euros and includes the continuation of the appeal of an additional amount of interest that the country would pay for a loan made in 2012, for the repurchase of debt.

With the successful 12th evaluation, Greece takes another step until the exit from the enhanced supervision regime, something that is expected in 2022.

At the same meeting, the dialogue framework for the redefinition of fiscal rules will be discussed once again, after the expiration of the 2023 total escape clause, when the limits and fiscal rules for all Member States will be restored.

The discussion will not take place on the substance, but in the direction of finalizing the framework of the dialogue that is expected to enter the key issues (ie the review of the criteria for the deficit and especially the debt) after the end of the first quarter of next year.