Ukraine conflict could lead to “cold war 2.0”, says Eurasia director

For political scientist Christopher Garman, executive director for the Americas at consultancy Eurasia, even if the war in Ukraine does not take long to end, the redesign that is already being provoked in geopolitical forces should last and lead to what he called “cold war 2.0”. .

“We believe that a cold war version 2.0 is the most likely,” said Garman, who spoke in an interview with CNN this Saturday (26), referring to possible scenarios even after an eventual end of Russian military attacks in the region.

“Of course, we in Eurasia assign a probability of 30% to the diplomatic exit, but we see no signs for this path. What I believe is that if we continue with a scenario where Russia continues to occupy part of Ukraine, and sanctions don’t come out, then what we see is a version of Russia’s isolation on the international stage.”

The weakening of the G20, of which Russia is still a part, and a greater alignment of the Russian economy with Asian countries, are other configurations of this new scenario of greater isolation described by Garman.

According to him, it is even possible that the military offensive itself will end in the coming months. “This war is proving much more difficult than Putin imagined and approaching failure,” he said.

The various economic sanctions on Russia, however, he argues, must continue. Europe’s move to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and the logistical restrictions on products exported by Russians, such as fertilizers consumed by Brazil, must also continue.

“It is important to point out that the end of the military conflict does not necessarily mean a diplomatic exit and, equally important for the global economy, the lifting of sanctions placed on Russia.”

Text published by Juliana Elias