Ukraine-Russia conflict could exacerbate global refugee crisis, says professor

Tensions on the borders between Ukraine and Russia are taking over diplomatic discussions worldwide, and the threat of an invasion has been commented on by Western leaders.

In an interview with CNN This Friday (18), the professor of International Relations at the Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing (ESPM), Gunther Rudzit, evaluated that one of the greatest risks of a possible escalation of conflicts in the region, in addition to the casualties of soldiers and combatants, would be the great increase of refugees in Europe.

In the event of conflict, thousands could leave their homes in Ukraine and Russian regions close to the border, and seek shelter in Eastern European countries, particularly neighboring Poland. The global refugee crisis has been a matter of concern for years in international bodies. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that 84 million people have been forcibly displaced by mid-2021, and among them, 26.6 million are refugees.

“One of the great fears of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine – a scenario that I consider very unlikely – is that it would lead to tens of thousands of refugees, not only in Poland, but also in Eastern European countries.” stated.

Rudzit reckons that, despite the constant discussions and declarations of Western powers about the imminence of an invasion, a conflict between the powers is extremely unlikely. However, an escalation of the civil war already raging between Ukrainians and Russian-backed groups in eastern Ukraine is a more worrying scenario.

“What some say is going to be a third world war, no, it’s not going to be that. Now, what exists is the possibility of an escalation of this conflict, of this civil war that is in eastern Ukraine, coming back,” he said.

In recent days, the Russian government has announced the withdrawal of forces from the area of ​​tension, but the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces claim that there is, in fact, an increase in the movement of Russian soldiers towards the place. The difference between the information, the teacher claimed to be “part of the game”.

“All this disagreement in numbers, whether they are or not, is part of this rearrangement process in which the Russian president wants to maintain as much pressure as possible to get Europe, led by the United States, to seriously negotiate with Russia.” he said.

“What we need to understand is that the world has changed and that we are no longer in that period of post-Cold War peace, we have returned to a world of dispute between the great powers”. In this “new phase” of the world, Russia wants to reaffirm its influence on the international scene and discuss the European security structure.

Ukraine, despite being the scene of the conflict, gained a supporting role. “That’s the big problem, Ukraine doesn’t have much of a voice in this game. It is the game of the great powers, and this is not the first, nor the second, nor the third time that this has happened in history.”

According to Gunther Rudzit, pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, comes from all sides. “If he gives in too much, Ukrainian nationalists will turn against him, and he could be overthrown. He is under pressure from both sides, both Russia and the West, and he is also under pressure from these nationalists.”