Ukraine: Russian artillery wears out and ‘self-detonates’

By David Axe

Russian artillery in Ukraine appears to be running out of ammunition as Ukrainian missiles blow up more and more supply depots.

And this is not the only problem facing the Russian Artillery, after five months of hostilities. Photos that have surfaced online in recent days show two Russian guns with their barrels “opened like banana peels,” according to Mark Hertling, a retired U.S. Army general who commanded units in Europe.

The dents on the two barrels – after being fired – indicate that the Russian guns are wearing out and not being repaired, Hertling explains.

“This is what happens when you don’t do maintenance,” he tweeted. “Certainly there will be casualties from this incident.”

When writing this thread, I looked for Russian “banana-peeled” artillery tubes, but couldn’t find them. Today, I saw 2 examples.

Here’s what happens when you don’t do maintenance/replace artillery tubes after specific # of rounds. You can bet there were associated casualties. https://t.co/pozkbmVi2B pic.twitter.com/evivGLLYl7

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) July 24, 2022

Such artillery damage suggests the Russian military is worn down and weakened after months of regular military operations aimed at capturing Severodonetsk and Lisitsansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbass.

Finally, the Russians – with the help of their allies: separatists and mercenaries – succeeded and captured the two cities in early July. The Ukrainian battalions that defended Severodonetsk and Lisitsansk withdrew in an organized way to the west of the country. Yes they gained time, but the price they paid in human lives and war equipment was heavy.

The Kremlin does not have a lot of time. For the invasion of Ukraine he mobilized around 150,000 troops – with 85% going to the front line. The Russian army lists at least 15,000 dead and many times that number wounded – it is exhausted.

Thus, the Kremlin hastily draws up dozens of battalions of volunteers, trains the recruits for a month, and then promotes them to the front. Moscow wants to quickly make up for its military losses, to cope with a possible Ukrainian counterattack in the south.

However, Russian artillery does not “self-detonate” without reason. The formations in the front line are in poor condition, as are the guns that support them.

With new rockets supplied by the US, the Ukrainian military is hitting Russian supply depots. The Kremlin’s men in charge of logistics are moving ammunition and supplies away from the front. In some cases, even 60 miles away – beyond the range of Ukraine’s best M30/31 rockets.

However, longer supply lines – three times the distance in some places – also mean delivery delays. Formed convoys cannot meet the artillery’s normal demand for shells. Analysts looking at data from NASA’s fire detection satellites have noticed a significant drop in artillery fire in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.

Maintenance delays are partly to blame for the Russian Artillery’s hold-up. Its barrels wear out with heavy use or can even break apart. Crews have two options: either replace the barrel or risk an explosion.

The life of a firearm barrel depends on the frequency and intensity of use, the strength of the explosive, and other factors. US Army shooters typically replace their barrels after 1,500 rounds.

Russian forces, which invaded Ukraine without adequate logistical infrastructure, are struggling to replace the barrels in time. The photos of the dismantled cannons also depict reality.

What is the reality? “That Russia is in bad shape and losing the war,” Hertling argues.