Ukraine: Scenarios for Russian Invasion, Ineffective Contacts and the Role of the West

The climate between Ukraine and is still tense Russiawith scenarios of invasion on the part of the latter remaining in the forefront by US and EU officials, trying to keep the “door” of diplomacy open, as if the negative scenario is confirmed, the consequences globally would be huge.

That is why many countries are calling on their citizens to leave Ukraine, while the US has been so far away. diplomatic staff from the embassy in Kiev as well as soldiers from the country.

Stagnation despite Putin’s contacts with Biden and Macron

Vladimir Putin’s contacts with Joe Biden and Emanuel Macron on the issue of Of Ukraine.

The start was made by the Russian president’s telephone conversation with his French counterpart, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov talking about a “Honest dialogue”with Paris emphasizing that there is a will to continue the dialogue and how Emanuel Macron “also conveyed the concerns of his European partners and allies”.

This was followed by Putin’s contact with Biden, which was characterized “Professional and substantive”but without any “fundamental change”.

Joe Biden warned his Russian counterpart about “Serious and rapid effects” Moscow will suffer in the event of an attack on Ukraine, according to the White House, clarifying that both the US and its allies “will respond decisively and impose a serious and rapid impact on Russia”.

Biden told Putin that the US is prepared for diplomacy as well as for “other scenarios”.

Blinken: The risk of a military invasion is high

High enough remains the risk of a Russian military invasion of Ukraineaccording to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, wanting to justify the removal of most of the staff of the US embassy in Kiev, announced by the State Department.

Speaking at a joint news conference in Honolulu after meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Japan and South Korea, Blinken reiterated that the diplomatic route with Russia regarding the Ukrainian crisis remains open and that the only way is for Russia to de-escalate the tension.

“Russia could launch an attack at any time”

The Minister of Defense of Great Britain, Ben Wallace, estimated that Russia could launch an attack on Ukraine anytimedespite Moscow ‘s repeated assurances that no country is threatened.

According to the Sunday Times, Wallace said a Russian invasion of Ukraine was “very likely” and that Russia could launch an “attack at any time.”

The British Secretary of Defense warned that In the event of escalation, NATO will deploy its forces along the Russian border and the Allies will increase military spending.

“He (s.s. Vladimir Putin) can just turn off his tank engines and we can all go home, but there is a smell of Munich in the air,” Wallace said.

The British defense minister traveled to Moscow on Friday and met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu. Wallace said the talks were “constructive and honest” and urged Moscow to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian border. For his part, Shoigu said after the meeting that the level of Russia-Britain relations was close to zero and that it was necessary to stop the deterioration of relations between Russia and NATO.

The last months, West, Kiev accuse Moscow of concentrating troops near Ukraine for preparations for an “invasion”. Moscow has denied the allegations, repeatedly saying it does not pose a threat to anyone, while expressing concern about NATO military activity near the Russian border, which it considers a threat to its national security.

Russia has said it has the right to move troops into its territory and has warned Western countries that military aid to Kiev could encourage it to use it against separatists in southeastern Ukraine (Donbas).