Ukraine: War could last 10 years or more if Russian forces are not repulsed, analysts say

As Russia gradually occupies more territory in Ukraine and continues to hit various targets in Donbas, analysts fear that Ukrainian fighters are losing their advantages, leaving the eastern region vulnerable to full occupation amid a protracted CNBC conflict, such as .

“I’m worried about this,” William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and weapons control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNBC. “There is a huge risk that Ukraine will continue to lose territory gradually.”

Much has changed since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. After initially attacking Ukraine from the south, east and north, Russia soon changed its focus to eastern Ukraine.

The withdrawal from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, as well as other strategic failures of Russian forces during the initial phase of the conflict, gave a major boost to the morale of the Ukrainian leadership and fighters, and there was optimism among Western allies that Ukraine might could even “win” this war against its strongest neighbor.

However, this optimism did not last long, especially as Russia seems to be doing everything in its power to occupy the entire Donbass region, as it aims to consolidate a land route from Russia through the Donbass to the Black Sea, where it seeks to acquire the control of the ports and trade of Ukraine.

The Donbas region includes the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine.

For several weeks now, Russian artillery has been bombing cities in eastern Ukraine, such as Lysichansk and Sheverodonetsk, the last city occupied by Ukrainian forces in Luhansk Oblast.

On Monday, the governor of Luhansk warned that Russia controlled most of Sheverodonetsk and that fighting was continuing, with all but one of the bridges to the city being destroyed and the latter severely damaged. Worst of all, Russian forces appear to have resumed their attacks in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast, after a break.

The loss of Sheverodonetsk would be a major blow to Ukraine, analysts say, and there are concerns that the country’s forces could begin to lose momentum in the fight against Russian forces.

Russia is making progress

The situation now appears to have shifted in Russia’s favor, analysts warn, and the increasingly likely Russian occupation of Severodonetsk could signal another turning point for Ukraine and another major loss, such as that of the large port of Mariupol.

“Russia is making gradual progress and now reportedly controls most of the strategically important city of Sheverodonetsk, although fierce fighting continues in the region,” said Andrius Tursa, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence.

“The occupation of this city – as well as of Lisichansk – is vital for Russia to gain full control of the Luhansk administrative district. If it achieves its goal, the Russian attack will most likely shift its focus to the Donetsk region, from which about half has already been occupied, “he said.

Tursa said the situation in Donbass reflected Russia’s military strengths, including its much larger firepower and troop numbers.

“Compared to the first phase of the attack, the Russian side seems to have improved its operational and logistical activities and is making more use of air superiority and electronic warfare capabilities. Meanwhile, Ukraine is suffering from slow and inadequate arms supplies from its allies, “he added.

Alberque said there was still a possibility that Russian forces might collapse somewhere and need to withdraw troops from the Sheverodonetsk front and move them north, to Kharkov or Kherson, but what makes this turning point dangerous is of the invasion is that Russia is now throwing everything it has at its disposal to completely occupy the region.

Alberque added that he had “real fears that if Ukraine could not repel Russian forces and force Russia into an even more diminished territorial ambition, we could see some kind of frozen conflict lasting a decade or more.”

For its part, Ukraine continues to beg its Western allies for hundreds more heavy weapons to have what it calls “arms parity” with Russia and to “end the war,” according to Mikhail Pontoliak, an adviser to the president. Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky.

The list of Ukraine’s demands, which includes tanks and more long-range weapons, is considered to be exactly what Ukraine needs right now, and while the United States and the United Kingdom have promised more such weapons, there are concerns about how much time will be required for their delivery.

Tursa said the surrender of weapons to NATO standards – combined with heavy losses of troops and equipment by Russia – could still shift the military conflict in Ukraine’s favor in the long run.

However, he noted, “it remains unclear whether these deliveries will be timely and sufficient for Ukraine to stop the Russian attack on Donbas or to regain at least some of the lost territory.”