Ukraine will resist Russia – both on the battlefield and at the diplomatic level

By Katya Soldak

Once again, Russia and NATO are face to face and holding tense negotiations. The reason this time is the concentration of troops from Russia on the border with neighboring Ukraine. This latest confrontation – the most serious since the end of the Cold War – has been going on in the midst of a tense climate for several weeks, and many believe that Europe is on the brink of a major conflict. With the war on its doorstep, Ukraine is preparing its defense.

Last Friday, US President Joe Biden called on American citizens to leave Ukraine within 48 hours, fearing an air strike by Russia. Other countries, however, urged their citizens to leave the threatened country. “Americans in Ukraine must leave the country as soon as possible, in any case within 24 to 48 hours,” said National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during a White House briefing. of the US embassy in Kiev was asked to leave the country, with anxiety about what will continue to intensify.

If there is military activity, the armed forces and the people of Ukraine have vowed to retaliate. Most importantly, however, the highly educated and technologically advanced people of Ukraine intend to oppose any diplomatic pressure, from external factors, that is not in line with their vision for the future. After all, in the end, it is the people of Ukraine who will provide the solution to any conflict. In recent days, thousands of Ukrainians have been protesting in solidarity with the Russian threat.

“It’s good that diplomatic efforts are continuing, it’s really difficult to assess any possibility,” said Timofy Milovanov, president of the Kiev School of Economics and adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential office. , he adds.

Milovanov points out that Ukraine has been at war with Russia for eight years, enduring various incidents of escalation and military invasion. Unlike eight years ago, when Russia first violated international law by invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea, Ukraine’s economy, society and military readiness are in good shape. Ukraine’s ability to resist is underestimated, Milovanov added.

The differences of the current crisis with 2014

Threatened military action against Ukraine is only the last chapter of years of Russian aggression against its neighbors. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, following the overthrow of the pro-Russian president during the Maidan revolution. At that time, Russian forces invaded the southern Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and annexed it. Russia has also instigated separatist tendencies in the eastern province of Donbass, providing the separatists with equipment and support, including assistance from Russian special forces and the military.

“The army and volunteers were able to stand tall in 2014, when our ‘brothers’ stabbed us in the back,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in a joint statement with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Zaluzni. “At that time, many people were not psychologically ready to resist those with whom they sat at the same table until yesterday. Today, the situation is completely different. The Kremlin is well aware of this, and it is an important deterrent. Today, we have the the most powerful army Ukraine has had in the last 15 years and the most powerful army in Europe – our army is led by combat generals and officers “.

The West’s confrontation with Russia could very well be the result of the West’s lack of “response” to the long-standing expansionist and contemptuous view of international law that Russia has shown under Vladimir Putin for a long time. Russia has illegally occupied parts of Georgia and Moldova for years, and when it annexed Crimea in 2014, it was sanctioned and initially excluded from the G20 and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). , Russia gradually returned to the international community, rejoined PACE, and even hosted the 2018 World Cup – all while continuing to violate international law as an attacking country and conqueror. and their children continue to live in western countries, save their money in western banks and invest in luxury real estate in Europe and the USA.

The “scene” of war set up by Russia

The recent escalation of the crisis has been prompted by Russia’s move to deploy an estimated 130,000 troops, artillery, armor, tanks, fighter jets and other military equipment around Ukraine, based in Russia, Belarus and elsewhere. Russia Autonomous Region of Moldova. In Crimea – the Russian-annexed peninsula of Ukraine – there is a Russian military base where dozens of warships are based on the Black Sea. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has said that the Sea of ​​Azov is completely closed and the Black Sea is almost completely cut off from Russian forces.

The whole operation, which Russia officially describes as a “planned military exercise,” looks like a preparation for a full-scale military offensive. “Logistics and engineering operations, as well as other operations along the border with Ukraine,” said General Mark Miley, chief of the General Staff.

To the west, Ukraine borders Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania – all NATO members. Stimulated by Russia’s large-scale concentration of forces, NATO has mobilized and the United States has deployed 8,500 troops in the region on high alert to help defend NATO allies in Eastern Europe if needed. is not a member of NATO, Russian aggression has pushed other countries to provide significant assistance to the war-torn country in order to strengthen its defense, including 300 Javelin missiles.

“The United States continues to work with our allies and partners to urge Russia to de-escalate tensions and choose the path of diplomacy,” said Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. Kersti Kaliulaid, former President of Estonia The Sherman – Kaliulaid conversation took place through YES, the platform founded by Ukrainian billionaire and philanthropist Viktor Pinchuk. ” consequences – much more serious than those imposed in 2014 ”.

In the 30 years since the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union from the 15 former Soviet republics, Ukraine has set an example of successful transition to a democratic, free market, as have the Baltic states, which are now members of the European Union. Residents of neighboring Belarus and Russia, who are unable to live and work freely in their home countries due to the repression of their authoritarian regimes, are flocking to Ukraine more and more often in search of a better life. The Ukrainian people – who have suffered two revolutions, in 2004 and 2014 – believe that resistance to the dictatorship can succeed, even if it leads to loss of life.

Putin’s insecurity over Ukraine is at the heart of the current military crisis, and the issue stands out among those the Russian leader wants to negotiate. Ukraine’s integration into the West is probably what Putin fears most – and he is right to worry. Recent polls show that some 40 million Ukrainians are strongly in favor of joining NATO – largely because of the actions of their aggressive neighbor from the east, but also because of fatigue from the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia has established “proxy” governments.

Last December, Russia raised security guarantees, saying those eastern regions would have to be annexed by Ukraine and that elections would have to be held without the withdrawal of Russian troops stationed there. This would effectively allow Donbas’s representatives to advance the Kremlin’s agenda in the Ukrainian parliament and prevent the country from taking any progressive initiative against Russia’s interests, including Ukraine’s cooperation with the West. The Ukrainians do not want that and will resist any pressure from the West to back down.

In addition, Russia demands that NATO refuse to allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join the Alliance, and that NATO withdraw its military forces from countries in the former Soviet bloc. Responding to a written response from US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Putin told French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday (February 28th) that he believed the West had ignored Russia’s security concerns.

Russia’s efforts to weaken Ukraine and bring it back into its sphere of influence have historically included strategies of destabilizing the neighboring country from within. In 2014, Russia took control of Donetsk and Luhansk by organizing pro-Russian demonstrations, which were allegedly orchestrated by locals, after which the Russian militia mobilized and secured the cities. “At this stage, we have not seen such moves – they are very different from 2014,” Milovanov said.

However, despite US rhetoric that war is either imminent or very likely, and that Russia may launch air strikes on Ukraine, the country, although on high alert, continues to be normal.

Last week, for example, the Ukrainian government unveiled Diia City – a digital initiative supposedly to turn Ukraine into a major European technology hub, providing a dedicated economic framework with legal, fiscal and employment benefits for both domestic and foreign technology companies and their employees. At the same time, meetings, conferences and other events in Kiev and the rest of the country continue as planned.

“No one can know what the Kremlin leaders are thinking and say exactly what they will do,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov. “But of course we are looking at all the scenarios and we are ready. Today, many statements are made, in fact Moscow even says that Ukraine is planning to attack Russia. This is absurd. We are not going to attack anyone, but we are doing everything to strengthen our defense and eliminate the possibility of escalation. We plan to follow the political-diplomatic path “.

* Watch my documentary “The Long Breakup” (2020, 85 minutes) about Ukraine’s struggle to break free from Russia’s embrace, leave behind its Soviet past and become a truly independent country, temporarily available here.