Wildfires have raged around the world, providing a relentless reminder of how the climate crisis upends lives and inflicts billions of dollars a year in damage. And it will only get worse, according to fire experts.
A report released this Wednesday (23) by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) suggests that it is time to “learn to live with fire” and adapt to the increasing frequency and severity of fires, which will inevitably put more lives and economies in danger.
The number of extreme fire events will increase by up to 14% by 2030, according to the report’s analysis. By 2050, the predicted increase is to 30%.
Even with the most ambitious efforts to reduce emissions, the report shows that these consequences are likely to happen in the short term.
While the situation is dire and eliminating fire hazards is impossible, communities can still reduce their risk and exposure, said Andrew Sullivan, director of research at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and editor of the report.
“Uncontrollable and devastating fires are becoming an expected part of seasonal calendars in many parts of the world,” Sullivan said at a press conference on Monday.
“Where wildfires have historically occurred, they can increase; however, where fires have not occurred historically, they may become more common”.
Fires affect all aspects of society, including public health, livelihoods, biodiversity and the already changing climate. UNEP researchers, including more than 50 experts from universities, government agencies and international organizations around the world, say the report serves as a “roadmap” for adapting to a world on fire.
changeable pattern
Fires have always served a vital ecological purpose on Earth, essential to many ecosystems. They restore nutrients to the soil, helping plants germinate and removing decaying matter.
Without fire, overgrown foliage such as grasses and shrubs can enhance the landscape to worsen eruptions, particularly during extreme drought and heat waves. The purposeful burning of parts of the land has historically prevented larger and more destructive fires. Indigenous peoples have applied this preventive method, known as controlled or prescribed burning, for thousands of years.
But as humans warmed the planet, developed more land, and created fire suppression policies while neglecting forest management, fires became more deadly and destructive than ever before.
These factors, according to the UNEP report, have drastically changed the fire regime.
They now burn hotter and are getting hotter in places where they always occurred; meanwhile, fires are also igniting and spreading in unexpected places, including swamps, peatlands and in the thawing permafrost in the Arctic.
“What’s striking is that now there are ecosystems that are starting to burn that we didn’t expect at this intensity,” Tim Christophersen, UNEP’s Head of Nature for Climate, told CNN.
“For example, there are a lot more wetlands that, from the name, you would think don’t catch fire easily. We see more and more fires also in the Arctic Circle, where fires are naturally rare.”
Fires, which are often ignited by lightning or human activity, are becoming more frequent because of man-made climate change.
Scientists have found, for example, that climate change has made the extreme weather conditions that fueled Australia’s 2019-2020 destructive fire season 30% more likely to occur.
Furthermore, a recent study found that forests in the Rocky Mountains are burning more now than at any other time in 2,000 years. Over the past two years, wildfires in the western US have performed extreme fire and smoke behavior across the country while creating their own climate.
Fires are also increasingly damaging public health. A recent study found that annual exposure to wildfire smoke results in more than 30,000 deaths in the 43 countries analyzed.
Another study found that the increase in fine particles from fire smoke in 2020 led to a surge in Covid-19 cases and deaths in California, Oregon and Washington.
Forest fires have also become more expensive. In the US, the UNEP report looked at data from the National Interagency Fire Center, which shows that average annual firefighting costs soared to $1.9 billion as of 2020 – an increase of more than 170% in a decade.
The researchers say that governments are not learning from the past, and that they are perpetuating conditions that are not environmentally and economically beneficial for the future.
“The world needs to change its attitude towards fires – from reactive to proactive – because wildfires will increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change,” Christophersen said. “That means we all have to be better prepared.”
change of mind
The report predicts that the likelihood of intense events, similar to those seen in the so-called “Black Summer” bushfires in Australia in 2019 and 2020, or the record-breaking Arctic fire in 2020, will increase by up to 57% by the end of the year. end of the century.
And given the ever-changing conditions in which fires now occur, researchers say officials and policymakers need to work together with local communities, bring back indigenous knowledge and invest money to prevent fires from happening in the first place. place, to reduce the damages and losses that come afterwards.
UNEP researchers suggest that governments adopt a “ready-to-fire formula” that commits two-thirds of spending to planning, prevention, preparedness and recovery, with only a smaller percentage devoted to responding to damage and loss.
“This formula needs to be adjusted to each regional and national context,” Christophersen said. “But overall, it’s a shift away from investing only in the response and more in prevention, planning and recovery.”
Climate change: See photos of wildfires around the world
Christophersen added that building stronger regional and international cooperation to help other countries is also crucial.
“Some countries are more advanced than others and can share their knowledge with other countries,” he said. “Right now, what’s keeping me up at night is that there’s still no real global response, so we need more investment in this kind of global platform as well.”
The report recognizes that the United Nations system itself “lacks a solid expertise dedicated to this challenge”, which they plan to change through a series of initiatives that would help countries.
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
