The Brazilian Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) rose 0.1 point from October to November, to 112.1 points, informed the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). For the second consecutive month, the IIE-Br was practically stable, just above the comfortable level of uncertainty (less than 110 points).
The stability and maintenance of the indicator at a high level reflects the scenario of economic slowdown towards the end of the year and the uncertainties regarding the direction of the economic policy of the next government.
During the month, the IIE-Br rose to 114 points, influenced by uncertainties in the political and fiscal spheres, falling again at the end of the month.
In view of the still challenging domestic situation and the unfolding of the government transition, the Uncertainty Indicator should fluctuate at a high level until the end of the year”, evaluated Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at FGV (Ibre/FGV), in official note.
The IIE-Br comprises two components: the IIE-Br MÃdia, which maps the frequency of news items mentioning uncertainty in the main newspapers; and the IIE-Br Expectativa, which is built from the dispersions of forecasts for the exchange rate and for the IPCA.
The Media component rose 0.3 points in November, to 112.6 points, contributing 0.3 points to the IIE-Br for the month. The Expectations component retreated by 0.7 points, to 105.1 points, with a negative contribution of 0.2 points to the indicator.
The Brazilian Economy Uncertainty Indicator is collected between the 26th of the month prior to the 25th of the reference month.
Source: CNN Brasil
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