President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will meet with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), the Minister of the Civil House, Rui Costa (PT), the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates (PT), at the next Monday (27). The meeting scheduled for 18:00 should deal with the exemption of fuels, which is only valid until the middle of next week, according to interlocutors interviewed by the CNN .
The rule is only valid until the end of February, which ends on Tuesday (28). As of Wednesday (1/3), fuel stations will already have to pay federal taxes to sell gasoline, which should make the price rise instantly.
In the calculations of economist André Braz, from FGV, the direct impact forecast is for inflation 0.75 percentage points higher in March. The jump is due to the fact that the IBGE calculates a weight of 5% of fuel in the family budget.
Even with the leveraged rate, the IPCA for March this year should be lower than the same month last year, according to the expert. In 2022, the month had a 1.6% increase in inflation. This year, his estimate is something around 1%. Everything will depend on the behavior of food and clothing prices.
The IBGE publishes the official inflation for the month always in the following month. The index to be released on March 10 should capture the increase in school fees surveyed in February. The March IPCA, which will be released on April 11, will point to the impact of gasoline if the tax exemption comes to an end.
Changes in Petrobras prices
There was an expectation that by Tuesday, Petrobras would be able to make a change in the state-owned company’s pricing policy, dropping the import parity and establishing a factor that would not cause the bombs to go off.
The problem is that, for that, Jean Paul Prates would need a plan ready and validated by the directors and directors of the state-owned company, which did not happen. Prates has already presented the names of those he wants on the board and also already has part of the list of those he wants to see on the Board. The inauguration, however, is scheduled for April.
The remaining members of the two Petrobras boards belong to the management of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and their respective nominees for the presidency of Petrobras: Roberto Castello Branco, Joaquim Silva e Luna, José Mauro Coelho and Caio Mário Paes de Andrade.
On a visit to Rio de Janeiro at the end of last month, the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, had already told the CNN that there were no ongoing discussions about a possible extension of the exemption from taxes on gasoline, aviation kerosene and vehicular gas.
rabbit in the hat
In calculations by the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), a liter of gasoline should increase by around R$0.69 and that of ethanol by R$0.24.
“We took the PIS/Cofins and Cide for gasoline and the PIS/Cofins for anhydrous ethanol, which will also return. Based on the proportion, we calculated the value”, tells the president of Abicom, Sérgio Araújo to CNN .
“In addition to the increased cost for the driver, it also increases the competitiveness of ethanol, which will have a lower readjustment than gasoline. It weighs on the consumer’s pocket and impacts on inflation, but on the other hand it allows for an increase in federal government revenue”, he adds.
People who follow this discussion within Petrobras say that there is no way, at this point, to pull a ‘rabbit out of the hat’. A change in such a short time, from one hour to another, without studies, could have a very negative impact on the market.
Source: CNN Brasil
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