Understand escalating tension in the Middle East with Israel and Iran exchanging attacks

An air attack hit the central region of Iran this Friday (19). The action followed an exchange of retaliatory actions between the Islamic country and Israel in recent weeks, and marks a potentially dangerous escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

According to a US official interviewed by CNN the attack carried out this morning was carried out by Israel.

So far, Iranian authorities have sought to tone down the incident. At the same time, Israel has not taken responsibility for what appears to be the latest attack in a decades-old conflict.

As the war that has been fought in the shadows emerges to the public, fears of an escalation towards a broader regional conflict also increase.

According to an official in Tehran, the capital of Iran, Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones following reports of explosions near an Army base, located in the province of Isfahan, central region of the country.

No missile attacks were reported, Iran's National Cyberspace Center spokesman Hossein Dalirian said on the X social network.

The loud bang observed near Isfahan was caused by “air defense systems firing at a suspicious object,” a senior Iranian military commander said.

He also added that there was “no damage or incidents,” according to the Iranian government-aligned Tasnim news agency.

All facilities near Isfahan were safe, including significant nuclear facilities, Iranian media reported.

The United Nations (UN) nuclear watchdog confirmed that no nuclear structures were damaged.

The attack follows an unprecedented Iranian attack against Israel, carried out last weekend.

According to Tehran authorities, the action was in retaliation for an attack allegedly carried out by Israel that hit and killed officers at the Iranian embassy in Syria on April 1.

The reprisals marked the first time that the Islamic country launched a direct attack against Israel from its own territory.

Following the Iranian action, several countries, including the United States, called for caution from Israel to prevent an escalation of the conflict, as the Israeli war against the Hamas group in the Gaza Strip has already inflamed political tensions in the region.

According to another senior US official interviewed by CNN , the Americans did not give the “green light” for an Israeli response. Before Friday's attack, the US expectation was that Israel would not target civilian or nuclear facilities, the official added.

Why is this happening now?

This Friday's attack follows the launch of hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles against Israel last Saturday (13), which activated sirens and the air defense system in Israel.

The action, which seemed designed to maximize the spectacle and minimize casualties, had a high volume of projectiles destroyed by Israel and its allies.

Despite the low risk posed by the attack, Israel said it would “charge a price” to Iran in response to the launches.

The Israeli war cabinet met periodically throughout this week without announcing any definitive action.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN that the intent of last weekend's attacks “remained within a minimum of parameters”, and that the action was “self-defense” in response to what Tehran claimed was an Israeli attack on the Islamic country's consulate in Damascus, capital of Syria, on April 1st.

The airstrike in question destroyed the embassy building and killed at least seven officers, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a high-ranking commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite group of Iran's security forces.

Senior commander Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi was also victimized, the minister said.

Israel's military forces did not take responsibility for the attack in Syria and told CNN who do not comment on matters from other countries.

A military spokesman, however, said that Israel believes the target was a “Quds Force military building” – an IRGC unit responsible for foreign operations.

The Pentagon, headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, stated that the reading of American authorities was that Israel had carried out the attack.

What is the relationship with Gaza?

The exchange of attacks between the two countries comes amid Israel's war in Gaza against the Hamas group. The conflict there caused a large-scale humanitarian crisis, with thousands of civilians killed and very high regional tension.

Israel began its war campaign after the Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023. According to Israeli officials, the attack killed more than 1,200 people, with around another 250 taken hostage.

Iran, which has a network of intermediaries spread across the region and is seen as a long-time supporter of Hamas, has denied involvement in the attack.

Since the outbreak of war in Gaza, however, Iran's intermediaries have carried out attacks against Israel and its allies and wreaked havoc on global shipping by launching missiles and drones at commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Tehran is believed to support but not fully control its intermediaries, including the powerful Hebzollah group in Lebanon and the Youthi rebels in Yemen.

The United States has been a staunch supporter of Israel during the war against Hamas. US President Joe Biden and senior members of his security team, however, have already warned Israeli allies that the US will not take part in any offensive action against Iran, according to US officials familiar with the matter.

What can happen?

Despite calls for caution made by Israel's allies, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, this Wednesday (17), that Israel will make its “own decisions” to respond to Iran's attacks.

Hours before the first reports of explosions in Iran this Friday, Minister Amir-Abdollahian warned that Tehran's response would be “immediate and at maximum level” to any new Israeli military action against the country.

“If the Israeli regime makes the grave mistake again, our response will be decisive, definitive and will cause them regret,” Iran’s foreign minister told CNN .

“We do not seek to create tension, crisis or escalate such situations in the Middle East, and we sincerely hope that the Israeli regime does not repeat its previous egregious error,” Amir-Abdollahian added.

The minister also added that the details of a potential “maximum response” have already been planned by Iran’s armed forces.

The Iranian media, however, appears to be trying to downplay the severity of Friday's attack. The country's press outlets have published photos and videos of calm scenes in Isfahan and the city of Tabriz, in northwestern Iran.

Israel would need significant support from its allies in the West to enter full force into a war in the Middle East, says Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Center research foundation, located in the region.

“Israel does not have the capacity to sustain a long-term “all or nothing” war without external support. A commitment from the United States to continue supplying weapons would be necessary. Israel depends on the US and other Western powers on a range of military issues,” Yahya told CNN .