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Understand new clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia and why it matters

Several dozen soldiers Armenians and Azerbaijanis were killed this Tuesday (13) in the deadliest clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia since the 2020 conflict.

Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting?

Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet countries in the South Caucasus, have been fighting for decades over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but which until 2020 was populated and fully controlled by ethnic Armenians. .

In a six-week war that year, Azerbaijan made significant territorial gains in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.

The fighting was ended by a Russian-brokered ceasefire, but skirmishes have erupted periodically since, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.

In the latest outbreak, the Yerevan government said that several cities in Armenia were attacked overnight. Azerbaijan said it was responding to Armenia’s provocations.

Why did the new confrontation arise now?

The moment is significant because in the past Russia was the most influential mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

While the Kremlin said on Tuesday that President Vladimir Putin was making every effort to stem the bloodshed in the South Caucasus, the war in Ukraine has undermined Moscow’s status as a guarantor of peace in the region.

This may have encouraged Azerbaijan to pursue more claims.

“I think there is a feeling in Azerbaijan that now is the time to deploy your power, your military advantage and extract as much as you can get,” said Laurence Broers, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank on the Russia and Eurasia program.

Azerbaijan and the Armenia they also categorically disagree on what a comprehensive peace agreement should look like.

While Baku wants to dissolve Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity and prevent Yerevan from playing a role there, the authorities armenians pledged to guarantee the rights of Armenians locations.

What are the risks?

A full-fledged conflict between the Armenia and Azerbaijan is at risk of dragging in the major regional powers, Russia and Turkey, and destabilizing the South Caucasus, an important corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas, at a time when the war in Ukraine is already disrupting supplies of energy.

Moscow has a defense alliance with Armenia and operates a military base there, while Ankara supports its ethnic Turkish relatives in Azerbaijan, both politically and militarily.

A war between the Armenia and Azerbaijan could create a need for more peacekeepers at a time when Moscow is unable to provide them.

“I think the risk is the establishment of new buffer zones, safety zones, a kind of fragmentation of at least the southern part of the Armenia and a powerlessness among external actors to prevent that from happening,” said Broers.

Source: CNN Brasil

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