The US election points to two opposing paths in terms of how the White House should conduct American diplomacy over the next four years.
On the one hand, Democrat Joe Biden promises to strengthen the US’s role in multilateral organizations, promoting ever greater integration among its allies. On the other hand, Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised to create customs barriers for foreign products, in addition to distancing himself from European allies and abandoning global initiatives to combat climate change.
Whatever Americans choose on November 5, it will be decisive for the way Brazil relates diplomatically to the United States — the two most populous and richest countries on the continent.
Check below what the impacts would be if the Republicans returned to the White House or if the Democratic Coalition remained in power until 2028.
Trump: America First
The Republican National Convention ended on Thursday (18) after four days of a conservative apotheosis that consolidated the Donald Trump-JD Vance ticket in the quest to return the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement to the White House.
The event also ends amid a scenario of Trump’s favoritism over reelection candidate Joe Biden, who had to withdraw from campaign events on Wednesday (17) after being confirmed diagnosed with Covid-19.
But how could a possible return of Republicans to the Presidency change US diplomatic relations with Brazil and Latin America?
First, there is still no official position from the Republican Party regarding Brazil.
The document that guides the conservative coalition’s policies in this election, called Project 2025, has just over 30 pages related to diplomacy. The US relationship with Brazil is not mentioned in any of them.
Still, Project 2025 outlines the vision conservatives want for the Latin American region as a whole, calling for possible bilateral partnerships to combat U.S.-directed immigration.
For Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Institute at the American think tank Wilson Center, the best way to assess the impacts of a possible return of Trump to the White House is to look at the effects of his first term — marked by uncertainty in diplomatic relations and disregard for alliances already consolidated between countries close to the US.
In Latin America as a whole, “this style of governance could result in greater polarization and distrust. A Trump-Vance victory in the 2024 elections would bring a more unilateral and transactional approach to foreign policy, weakening alliances, fostering internal divisions in the region, and potentially exacerbating humanitarian and political crises,” says Santos.
For Brazil, specifically, the risk is multifaceted, says Santos.
Trump promises to create a universal tariff on imported products, which would include Brazilian production of oil, aircraft, steel, coffee and pulp. According to an estimate published by the US State Department, the shipment of products from Brazil to the US is responsible for maintaining 500,000 direct jobs in the country.
The objective of increasing customs duties, according to the Republican coalition, is to restore the US’s leading role in the production of consumer goods.
At the same time, Trump’s ticket promises to set aside the agenda of combating climate change, which would reduce international pressure to reduce deforestation in Brazilian biomes.
“Bilateral relations could become more volatile due to Trump’s transactional style. A Trump victory could lead to a more tense and unpredictable relationship between the US and Brazil, with possible negative impacts on critical areas such as trade, the environment, democracy and human rights,” Santos highlights.
Lula and Biden: “Friends, yes; allies, no”
With four months to go until the US election, however, a possible Democratic comeback cannot be ruled out. If Joe Biden is the victorious candidate — it is not yet even certain that he will be the Democratic candidate — this would mean maintaining diplomatic relations as they are now.
With Joe Biden in the White House and Lula in the Planalto Palace, there is a rare moment in Brazil’s diplomacy with the US: the two largest countries on the continent follow the same internal agenda of reindustrialization and environmental protection.
Still, in the international community, disagreements between Itamaraty and the State Department are constant.
In the war in Ukraine, Brazil condemned Russia’s invasion, but distanced itself from the White House’s position of unconditional support for President Volodymyr Zelensky. In Israel’s war against Hamas, Lula condemned the deaths of Palestinian civilians and defended investigations into Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet for possible war crimes. Joe Biden, on the other hand, continued to send billions of dollars in military aid to the Israeli prime minister.
At the same time, Brazil is one of the main destinations for Chinese infrastructure investments, part of the New Silk Road initiative implemented by Beijing that is seen as a risk to American influence on the continent as a whole.
“There is a synergy of internal programmatic agendas, even though there is no alignment in foreign policy. The United States today are excellent friends, but not allies,” concludes Santos.
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Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
