Understand why a food supply alert caused panic in China

Few issues are more important to Beijing than food security. For centuries, governments have faced the challenge of feeding a large and expanding population.

Droughts, floods and famines feature prominently throughout China’s history – and rebellions launched by hungry peasants toppled several imperial dynasties.

But the government’s latest attempt to ward off price and supply concerns appears to be getting out of hand.

A letter about food stockpiles from China’s Ministry of Commerce has sparked a buying panic among the public and frenzied online speculation this week.

At first glance, the warning doesn’t look much different from the typical guidelines the Chinese government has sent out in the past, emphasizing the need to increase supplies.

The message urges local authorities to ensure their citizens have an “adequate supply” of essentials this winter.

It also instructs these governments to keep food costs stable – a point of concern in recent weeks as extreme weather, energy shortages and Covid-19 restrictions threaten supplies.

But Monday’s directive has caught the attention of ordinary Chinese in a way that few other government warnings have.

In part, because it includes rare language about the need for local authorities to encourage families to stock up on “daily needs”. Even though the notice was not meant to be read by an ordinary family, many online interpreted it as a personal notice.

The government “didn’t tell us to stock up on products even when the Covid outbreak started in early 2020,” wrote a user of the Twitter-like Weibo service earlier this week.

The reaction has increased since then. A video posted on Weibo by the state magazine China News Weekly shows long lines of shoppers at supermarkets in Changzhou, a city in Jiangsu province.

Their carts are piled high with products and other supplies, while store shelves are empty.

Delicate issue in the country

Food is a very sensitive issue in China. The Great Chinese Famine during the 1950s and 1960s led to the death of tens of millions of people. The tragedy remains in the memory of many in the country.

And while China’s economy has undergone a dramatic transformation, food security concerns persist: the government, for example, recently unveiled an “action plan” encouraging people not to order more food than they need and to denounce restaurants who waste food.

Still, the discomfort caused by the Ministry of Commerce’s warning was extraordinarily intense.

The rampant speculation has linked the request for food stocks to rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei. China considers Taiwan an “inseparable part” of its territory, although the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled the autonomous island.

There is, however, absolutely nothing to substantiate rumors that China is preparing for an imminent war.

But the online panic suggests some growing tension, according to Willy Lam, adjunct professor in the Department of History at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

“It’s a reflection of the tense geopolitical situation between China and neighboring countries,” he said.

Lam also pointed out several economic concerns that could be contributing to the turmoil.

This year’s energy crisis forced factories to suspend part of production and led to blackouts in homes – problems that in some cases “happened without any prior notice from the government,” he said.

“This reflects people’s anxiety about further drastic increases in [custos] of food and also the distrust of the government”, added Lam.

The Chinese government and some state-run media have tried to allay fears about food shortages.

Zhu Xiaoliang, an official at the Ministry of Commerce, told state broadcaster CCTV this week that there was enough supplies. Zhu emphasized that the guideline is aimed at local authorities.

Jiangsu’s Emergency Management Department, meanwhile, acknowledged concerns about “emergency supplies” in its WeChat account on Tuesday (2). But the agency said any recommendations for stockpiling were “normal” and aimed “to improve public awareness of disaster prevention.”

The government’s commitment to a zero Covid policy – ​​even as countries around the world reopen and learn to live with the coronavirus – is also a factor.

Only a single case can lead Chinese authorities to action, blocking entire areas and conducting mass tests or requesting quarantines.

These measures “will likely affect store-going residents as well as market opening hours,” said Chenjun Pan, a senior analyst at Rabobank who researches agriculture in China.

Wang Hongcun, an official at the Beijing Municipal Commerce Department, acknowledged last week that strict containment measures could contribute to higher food costs, adding that the cost of moving between regions could increase.

He pointed out that the prices of some vegetables in the country’s capital rose 50% or more in October.

Lam said Beijing is also unlikely to change course, meaning cities must prepare to withstand potentially lengthy blockades as the government tries to keep the coronavirus case count low.

“This is preparation for the fact that these lockdown conditions will continue, although overall the total numbers for China are actually very low compared to other countries,” he added.

“Beijing is unlikely to stop this zero tolerance policy.”