Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the United States. To get an idea, the sector contributed US $ 2.36 trillion For American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023, surpassing the pre-pound values, according to the Statist platform. A job is generated in the country every 40 international visits, according to the ITA (International Trade Administration).
However, this scenario may change due to import tariffs – that is, the trade war – That the President Donald Trump announced. China, Mexico and Canada, the largest buyers of US products, are some of the main targets.
According to experts, tariff, current migratory control policy and US repositioning as an unpredictable country can affect tourism in the country. Financial services companies have already designed a weakening of trips and has released weak profit predictions from companies in the sector.
Air sector in the USA
In the face of uncertainties about tariff policies – whether or not they will remain -, signs of this seizure in the air sector began to be seen . This happens after the companies benefited two months ago with strong demand and solid prices on US tickets.
In April, American Airlines canceled profit forecast for 2025 due to market uncertainties. In the same month, Delta Air Lines released the forecast of a smaller profit than expected for the current quarter, saying that demand for travel “largely paralyzed”.
Economic mechanisms applied in the short term can mitigate the damage of tariff policy for tourism in the US, according to GLAUBER SANTOS Economist and Postgraduate Coordinator in Tourism, University of São Paulo (USP).
For him, the perspective is that airlines begin to have a Reduction in occupancy rate And with the devaluation of the dollar, the price of tickets to the US. “This tends to get the fall a little bit, but it is an element of very short term “Points Glauber.
On the other hand, Guilherme Dietze economist and president of the Tourism Council of Fecomerciosp, points out that the American inflation trend With the trade war must affect long -term ticket prices . “[O tarifaço] It should bring a cost to the airlines that must be passed on to the consumer, ”says the economist.
For Glauber, companies should still decrease the number of flights to the US and eventually expand demand for competing destinations. The devaluation of the dollar should also reduce international tourism of Americans and, with this, intensify domestic flights – which is already strong in the country.
“However, this substitution is not perfect and, therefore, the domestic should not compensate for losses in the emissive [de americanos que viajam internacionalmente] And in the receptive, ”explains the coordinator.
And the air sector of Brazil?
Destinations in the US are one of the most popular among Brazilians. One IATA STUDY (International Air Transport Association) pointed out in a ranking that Miami (4th place), Orlando (5th) and New York (6) were the most sought after places by travelers in Brazil in 2023.
As tariffs for Brazil are 10% of national products, the country is one of the least affected by US policy. For Glauber, if the trade war continues, Brazilian airlines are expected to reduce prices at first and then reduce the Flight offer to the USA in the medium term.
He also says that Trump’s policy should not have “much effect” on the demand of Brazilians for travel abroad, which can visit other places, such as Canada and Europe.
“It seems that Trump fares are not generating and have no prospects to generate reactions, for example, in tariffs between Europe and Brazil or other pairs of countries around the world. So this effect should be quite contained in the US, making it more marked and evident the favoring of competing destinations in the US country,” he explains.
Dietze already believes that the Brazilian should not reduce the demand of business and leisure tourism to the US. He says that intense demand for visiting the country involves trips for fun, participation in fairs and exchange students who return to Brazil for a period and then return to the North American nation.
“I don’t see this reduction in Brazilian tourists in the US as an impact. What would impact would be a very unfavorable exchange rate which is not the case: we are seeing the most behaved exchange rate of $ 5.60, below the $ 6.30 we saw at the end of last year. This is encouraging Brazilian tourists to go to the US, ”he says.
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*With information from Reuters Siddarth S in Bengaluru
The post airfare price for USA should fall in the short term, says expert Appeared First on CNN Brazil V&G.
Source: CNN Brasil
Johanna Foster is an expert opinion writer with over 7 years of experience. She has a reputation for delivering insightful and thought-provoking articles on a variety of subjects. Her work can be found on some of the top online news websites, and she is currently lending her voice to the world stock market.
