US CPI: USD recovery should be sold unless underlying index surprises to the upside – TDS

TD Securities economists discuss how it could affect the dollar and the USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow.

The bar is high to force a reversal

The market has again targeted a decrease in the aggressiveness of the Fed and puts the USD on the defensive. A figure above consensus does not strike us as a particular threat to the dollar. On the other hand, it is also not clear that a positive surprise in core inflation would tremendously alter the trajectory of the USD.”

“As much as the USD seems stretched on a tactical basis, we believe the bar is high to force a reversal. USD rallies should sell“.

With the BoJ meeting next week, USD/JPY is a clear candidate for further declines. In the meantime, EUR/USD has shown its resilience; 1.0780/00 ​​is all that stands in the way of another crash.”

Source: Fx Street

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