They are now only five. Five states that have not yet delivered all of their results: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. These are the last not to have been awarded and it is these five that will decide between the two candidates. Indeed, neither of the two men won the ballot, contrary to what their statements suggested on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday. “Frankly, we won this election,” said Donald Trump to the cheers at the White House a few hours after an almost similar speech from Joe Biden, who felt he was “on the way to victory”. If we trust the figures, none are elected for the time being. Joe Biden will win the popular vote, which was expected, but neither is eliminated. They each have a good chance of being elected. Here’s how.
First of all, we see that the democratic tidal wave, announced by some pollsters, did not take place. Far from there. Donald Trump even won the two biggest swing states of the evening: Florida and Ohio. For his part, Joe Biden won a primordial state: Arizona. Wednesday morning, Joe Biden had 238 electors and Donald Trump, 213. Biden is therefore the favorite, knowing that it is the one who arrives at 270 who wins in the end.
Towards the Supreme Court?
There remain the five states still in the balance: Pennsylvania (20 grand electors), Georgia (16 grand electors), North Carolina (15 grand electors) and Wisconsin (10 grand electors). Biden’s team ensures that Georgia will switch to its side, because the votes that have not been counted come from the big cities, favorable to its candidate. It would be a surprise, we thought the state anchored on the Republican side, but it seems however – at the moment – the most likely scenario. Biden would then be 254 voters. In this case, if he wins two of the four states still in play, he is elected president. If he wins even Michigan or Pennsylvania, too. A victory in North Carolina brings him to 269 voters, one below the fateful bar. Suffice to say that a victory for Biden in Georgia seriously opens the doors of the White House.
Another scenario: Trump wins Georgia, he is then with 229 votes. His very favorable dynamic in North Carolina should ensure him 15 more voters, or 244. If he wins two of the three states of the “blue wall” (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan), he wins a second mandate.
From an accounting point of view, it is Joe Biden who is in the lead. But we now know, the ballot could go to the Supreme Court. And there, the figures are favorable to the Republicans: 6 of the 9 judges who compose it are conservatives.
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